Research On Multi-energy Complementary Model And Its Impact Assessment In The Yellow River Basin From The Perspective Of Carbon Neutrality

China has a special energy structure,with coal accounting for more than two-thirds.Most coal resources are distributed in the Yellow River Basin,which is short of water.The water consumption of coal power in the whole life cycle is huge,which seriously affects the development of ecological carbon sink in the basin.Unreasonable energy structure and low efficiency of resource allocation are the main problems faced by lowcarbon development in the basin.Therefore,this paper studies the multi energy complementarity and low-carbon development model of clean energy in the Yellow River Basin,proposes to use multi energy complementarity to realize the highefficiency utilization of new energy to replace coal and electricity,realize the adjustment of energy structure,use water-saving to develop agricultural carbon sink,and build a low-carbon development model of "energy conservation-emission reduction-water conservation-carbon fixation-efficiency".The main results of the research are as follows.(1)The economic pattern and energy and water flow mechanism of the Yellow River Basin are revealed.Using remote sensing images in geographic Informatics,the relationship between economic development and energy and water flow in the Yellow River Basin is revealed by calculating the night light index of the Yellow River Basin.Combined with the distribution of water resources in China,it can be concluded that the development of the Yellow River Basin depends too much on energy,and its economic development pattern is obviously subject to the shortage of water resources.From the perspective of carbon neutralization,it is necessary to reduce carbon and save water by replacing coal and electricity with clean energy.Using wind and solar new energy to replace coal and electricity can not only change the energy structure,but also save water resources and make maximum use of the existing energy and water channels.(2)A multi energy complementary model and capacity allocation model of clean energy based on wind,solar and water storage unit are proposed.The unit wind / light/ water / storage clean energy multi energy supplement base can stabilize the power transmission of the whole system by using hydropower station and pumped storage to adjust the power;The research on installed capacity allocation is carried out by means of optimization.Taking the minimum initial investment of the base as the objective function,and considering the constraints of power supply guarantee rate,power rejection rate and installed capacity,the optimization model is constructed.Carry out a typical case study on the installed capacity configuration of Heishanxia clean energy base on the Yellow River,and optimize the installed capacity configuration of the case project under specific load conditions.The relatively optimal installed ratio of photovoltaic / wind power / pumped storage / hydropower is 4.6:1.4:1.7:1.(3)This paper puts forward a low-carbon economic development model of "energy conservation emission reduction water conservation carbon sequestration efficiency" with multi energy complementarity in the Yellow River Basin,so as to promote the realization of the goal of "carbon neutralization" from two aspects of increasing carbon sink and reducing carbon emission.Through the large-scale application of unit wind,solar and water storage clean energy multi energy complementary technology,six unit clean energy bases can be built in the Yellow River Basin,with a total installed capacity of 141.7 million k W.After the completion of the electric energy base,the power generation will reach 240.446 billion k W·h,replace 103 million tons of standard coal,directly reduce 252 million tons of carbon and save 604 million cubic meters of water.Water resources are the main factor restricting the ecological carbon sequestration of the Yellow River.Through NDVI analysis,it is found that the development of irrigated agriculture is the best means of ecological carbon sequestration.Through modeling analysis,the relationship between water volume and carbon sequestration is determined,and the calculation model of "determining carbon by water" is constructed.Finally,the use of water saving can produce 2,488,500 tons of carbon sequestration at most.(4)The impact of clean energy multi energy complementary model on the development quality of the Yellow River Basin is analyzed.According to the calculation of basin development index bdi,from 2021 to 2030,the BDI value of "energy conservation-emission reduction-water conservation-carbon fixation-efficiency" low-carbon economic development model is significantly better than the current model,with an increase rate of about 1.9%.During the decade from 2021 to 2030,the improvement rate of the development quality of the Yellow River Basin under the lowcarbon economic development mode is about twice that under the original development mode,and the effect is remarkable.