Analysis Of Influencing Factors And Peak Paths Of Carbon Emissions In The Yellow River Basin Under The Background Of High-quality Developmen

As the world’s largest carbon dioxide emitter,China has made great efforts to combat climate change.In September 2020,President Xi Jinping first proposed in his speech at the general debate of the 75 th United Nations General Assembly that China’s carbon dioxide emissions “strive to peak by 2030 and strive to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060”.The Yellow River Basin is an important economic zone in my country and an important energy,chemical,raw material and basic industrial base.However,the extensive development model of “high consumption and high pollution”in the nine provinces and autonomous regions of the Yellow River Basin has become an important factor hindering the realization of the “dual carbon” goal.Therefore,analyzing the status quo of carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin,the driving factors of carbon emissions,and the path of carbon peaking is of great significance for the realization of ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin.First,the relevant literature on carbon emission influencing factors and peak forecasting is combed in detail,and related theories such as high-quality development theory,low-carbon economy theory,and coordinated development theory are analyzed to provide theoretical basis for subsequent research.Secondly,it analyzes the economic and social development status and carbon dioxide emissions of nine provinces and regions in the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2020,and analyzes the spatial spillover effect of carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin from two perspectives.Then,the spatial econometric model was combined with the STIRPAT model to analyze the drivers of carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin.Finally,based on the extended STIRPAT model,a carbon emission prediction model for each province is constructed.Combined with scenario analysis and Monte Carlo simulation methods,the future trends of carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin provinces under the baseline scenario,the low-carbon scenario and the technological breakthrough scenario are predicted,and then the paths of carbon emissions peaking in the nine provinces of the Yellow River Basin are analyzed.The main conclusions reached are:(1)All provinces show an overall increasing trend of carbon dioxide emissions from 2000 to 2020.The economic-geographic weight matrix and geographic weight matrix were set up to analyze the spatial correlation of carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin.At the same time,compared with 2000,the local correlation in 2020 also shows an expansion trend under the two weight matrices.(2)Combining the STIRPAT model with a spatial econometric model to explore the factors influencing carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin,it is found that carbon emissions and economic growth in the Yellow River Basin show a “U” shaped EKC curve relationship,with population size,industrial structure and urbanisation rate in the Yellow River Basin showing a significant positive impact on carbon emissions,and energy intensity having a negative impact on carbon emissions.(3)Based on the extended STIRPAT model,a carbon emission projection model for each province and region was constructed by combining the influencing factors of population size,GDP per capita,energy intensity,urbanisation rate and industrial structure.Combining the current economic and social development of the Yellow River Basin and future policy regimes,the scenario analysis method and Monte Carlo simulation method are applied to predict the trend of carbon emissions in each province and region of the Yellow River Basin under three scenarios during 2021-2035,and it is found that nine provinces and regions fail to reach the peak under the baseline scenario,while carbon peaks occur under both the low carbon scenario and the technological breakthrough scenario.In the technological breakthrough scenario,the number of peaks,the number of years to peak and the number of carbon peaks in the Yellow River Basin provinces are all better than those in the low-carbon scenario.Accordingly,this paper puts forward relevant policy recommendations to optimise the industrial structure,transform the economic growth model and promote regional synergy in reducing emissions.