Evaluation Of Carbon Emission Reduction Effectiveness Of Energy Consumption In The Yellow River Basin And Research On Emission Reduction Potential

The Yellow River Basin is an important ecological barrier and economic zone in China,and plays an important role in the economic and social development and ecological security of our country.With the rise of ecological protection and high quality development in the Yellow River Basin as a major national strategy,many problems faced by solving the high quality development of the Yellow River Basin have attracted attention.Carbon emission as an important constraint factor in social and economic development is making carbon emission reduction become an important point to support the strategy,and carbon emission reduction effectiveness evaluation and potential tapping is an important content to promote region and industry’ low-carbon transition and then achieve high-quality development.Therefore,this paper selects the Yellow River Basin as the research area,and takes carbon emission intensity for energy consumption reduction effectiveness evaluation and potential tapping as the research object.The provincial carbon reduction is actually a reconstruction of the economic pattern within the Yellow River Basin in a sense,and the industry level carbon reduction is an important way to realize the low-carbon transformation of the industry.Therefore,the provincial and industry level emission reduction effectiveness evaluating and emission reduction potential tapping plays an important guiding role in formulating reasonable,comprehensive and systematic emission reduction policies.Firstly,Based on the logic of “province(industry)emission reduction effectiveness-province(industry)emission reduction comprehensive contribution-province(industry)emission reduction effectiveness and emission reduction comprehensive contribution relationship”,this paper has constructed the evaluation framework of carbon emission reduction effectiveness in the Yellow River Basin,and integrated the high-quality development concept into the industry emission reduction effectiveness framework so as to evaluate the emission reduction effectiveness of provinces and industries in the process of carbon emission intensity decline in the Yellow River Basin in order to achieve the purpose of "evaluation to promote construction ".Secondly,based on the selection of factors affecting carbon emission intensity,using panel regression,multiple regression and situational analysis,the carbon emission intensity under the baseline scenario,high scenario and low carbon scenario is predicted.And the carbon emission intensity under the low carbon and high carbon scenarios relative the baseline scenario were set as emission reduction potential and emission enhancement risk,and the magnitude and focus of emission reduction are discussed.In this way we can achieve the scientific study of “time” and “potential”,dialectical grasp of “danger and“machine”purpose.The following conclusions are drawn:The carbon emission intensity of the Yellow River basin is decreasing in volatility,and there are significant provincial and industry differences.The carbon emissions intensity in the Yellow River Basin is characterized by significant stage characteristics with annual growth in 2000～2012 and fluctuating decline in 2012～2017.At the provincial level,it has the characteristics of lower downstream,middle upstream and highest middle reaches.The intensity of carbon emissions in Shaanxi,Henan,Gansu and Sichuan decrease significantly,while the carbon emissions intensity in Shanxi,Inner Mongolia,Qinghai,Ningxia and Shandong decrease slightly.At the industry level,the intensity of carbon emissions in industry and transportation,warehousing and postal services was higher,for the high carbon industry,while the other four major industries have lower carbon intensity,which is the low carbon industry.In general,the major industries shows a downward trend,among which the larger industries are industry and construction,while the remaining four industries showed relatively small changes.The provinces with good emission reduction have changed in space from the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River basin to the upper and lower reaches.From the point of view of the effectiveness of emission reduction,the number of effective provinces with emission reduction is large,and the provinces distributed in the upper,middle and lower reaches,and the spatial range is gradually reduced.From the comprehensive contribution of emission reduction in provinces,except for individual provinces,most provinces have contributed to the decline of carbon emission intensity in the Yellow River Basin,and the middle and lower reaches are the main contribution areas that affect the change of carbon emission intensity in the Yellow River Basin.From the point of view of contribution pathways,the contribution of carbon emission intensity in the Yellow River basin mainly depends on the decrease of carbon emission intensity in various provinces,while the change of provincial output value only plays a limited regulatory role.Industry emission reduction results are not optimistic,but the overall improvement.There are significant differences in the effectiveness of emission reduction between industries,and the industry and construction industry have always been effective industries.The effectiveness of emission reduction in each industry has significant spatial imbalance characteristics,with different levels of development in the upper,middle and lower reaches showing different spatial trends.Most industries have contributed to the decline of carbon intensity in the Yellow River basin,the middle and lower reaches tend to focus on multi-industry contribution,the upper reaches tend to focus on single-industry contribution,and the industry carbon intensity is the main factor to promote the decline of carbon intensity in the Yellow River basin,especially the contribution of industrial carbon intensity in individual provinces is high.There are significant differences in the size and direction of the factors driving the intensity of carbon emissions,but improving energy efficiency is the key condition to achieve low carbon development.The energy efficiency is the most important factor in the province,industry and the whole basin.At the basin and provincial level,the industrial structure also has a certain role in carbon suppression,while the population size and consumption level are bidirectional in provinces and industries.The trend of carbon emission intensity in the future province is divided into two kinds: decreasing year by year and curve change with inflection point.The decreasing year by year is the main changing trend of carbon emissions in future provinces,and only Qinghai and Ningxia are curve changes trend with inflection points.In addition to Qinghai,the low-carbon scenarios in other provinces are most conducive to carbon emission reduction.Shanxi and Inner Mongolia have greater emission reduction potential,and it is an important driving point to promote low-carbon development,while Henan,Shaanxi and Sichuan have less emission reduction potential.Carbon emission intensity is generally small in low carbon scenarios,which is the most favorable scenario for future industry carbon emission reduction.The emission reduction potential of 6 industries is always higher than that of emission increase risk.Among which industry and construction industry are the industries with greater emission reduction potential and emission increase risk.