| Facing the various risks and challenges brought by greenhouse gases to human society,it is the general trend to take a positive attitude to control the emission of greenhouse gases,such as carbon dioxide,and develop a green and low-carbon economy.Cities emit more than 70%of the world’s greenhouse gases.They are the forefront and main body of coping with climate change and will play a vital role in achieving the global zero carbon goal.As an integral part of major national strategies,the Yellow River Basin and the Yangtze River Basin are the North-South main body of China’s regional economic development and an important support for ecological protection and regional coordinated high-quality development.Their low-carbon development level is related to the realization of the―double carbon‖strategic goal.To carry out the research on urban carbon emission efficiency,influencing factors and quota emission reduction in the Yangtze River Basin and the Yellow River Basin,and explore the path of urban carbon emission reduction has important theoretical and practical significance for promoting the development of urban green and low-carbon economy.Therefore,based on the perspective of basin administration superposition,taking 140 cities in the Yangtze River Basin and the Yellow River Basin as the research object,this paper makes an in-depth study on the carbon emission of cities in the two basins.The specific methods and main research conclusions are as follows:（1）Based on the linear relationship between provincial NPP-VIIRS night light data and energy and carbon emissions,a municipal scale energy and carbon emission inversion model is constructed,and the municipal energy consumption and CO2emissions of 140 major cities along the Yangtze River Basin and the Yellow River Basin from 2005 to 2019 are calculated.The results show that from 2005 to 2019,the change trend of urban energy consumption in the Yangtze River Basin is very similar to that of carbon emission,both of which show an increasing trend,but the growth rate slows down significantly.Most of the high-value areas of energy consumption in the Yangtze River Basin are cities with rapid economic development,and most of the high-value areas of energy consumption in the Yellow River Basin are resource-based cities.The per capita carbon emissions of the two watersheds showed an upward trend,while the carbon emission intensity per unit GDP showed a downward trend.In addition,the per capita carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity per unit GDP of cities in the Yellow River Basin were higher than those in the Yangtze River Basin.（2）The static characteristics of urban carbon emission efficiency from 2005 to 2019are analyzed by using minds model,and the spatial agglomeration characteristics and evolution law of carbon emission efficiency in the Yangtze River Basin and the Yellow River Basin are explored with the help of standard deviation ellipse.The results show that the carbon emission efficiency of the Yangtze River Basin and the Yellow River Basin shows a fluctuating upward trend,but the spatial distribution is uneven,and the spatial evolution characteristics of the two basins are different.（3）The carbon emission efficiency characteristics of the two watersheds analyzed by Malmquist index model show similarity.The specific performance is as follows:the MI index of carbon emission efficiency of cities in the two watersheds is greater than 1,indicating that the carbon emission efficiency of cities in the two watersheds shows an upward trend,but this upward trend slows down;Both technological progress and technological efficiency have played a positive role in improving the carbon emission efficiency of cities in the two basins,especially the impact of technological progress.It is found that the weakness of technical efficiency is mainly caused by the slight inhibition of scale effect.（4）The panel regression analysis of the Yangtze River Basin and the Yellow River Basin adopts the fixed effect model.The regression results show that the four explanatory variables of economic development level,industrial structure,energy consumption intensity and urbanization level have a strong explanatory power of more than 90%to the changes of carbon emission efficiency in the two watersheds.The level of economic development,industrial structure and energy consumption intensity have the greatest impact on the carbon emission efficiency of the Yangtze River Basin,while the level of economic development,industrial structure and urbanization have the greatest impact on the carbon emission efficiency of the Yellow River Basin.The industrial structure has different manifestations in the two basins,and the urbanization level has no significant impact on the carbon emission efficiency of the Yangtze River Basin.（5）The per capita historical cumulative carbon emissions and entropy weight method are used to calculate the initial quota and final quota of carbon emissions in 2030,and then the efficiency of initial quota and final quota is calculated by DEA-BBC model to test the effectiveness of quota allocation optimization.On this basis,the carbon emission reduction potential of 140 cities in the two basins in 2030 is calculated.The results show that under the carbon dioxide emission reduction target of 2030,the total allowable carbon dioxide emission of the Yangtze River Basin and the Yellow River Basin is 7352.21725 million tons.Under the single basin quota,the average value of the final quota efficiency in the Yangtze River Basin is 0.88,which is 33.47%higher than the initial quota efficiency.The efficiency of the Yellow River Basin is 10.89%higher than the initial quota value,and the final efficiency is 10.4%.Under the cross basin carbon emission quota,the efficiency value of the final carbon emission quota of the two basins is 0.88,which is 36.76 higher than the efficiency value of the initial carbon emission quota,and the efficiency is improved the most. |
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