The Study Of The Influencing Factors Of Carbon Emission And Its Peak Reaching Prediction Of The Construction Industry In Shanxi Province

As a high-carbon sector,the construction industry accounts for a large proportion of urban carbon emissions.About 40% of global energy consumption is related to the construction industry.In 2019,the carbon emission of the whole process of the construction industry accounted for about 50.6% of the total carbon emission of our country.According to the "World and China Energy Outlook(2020 edition)" report,the energy saving potential of the building sector ranks first among the three major emission sectors in the world.Therefore,the issue of carbon dioxide emission in the construction sector has become a focus of attention in various countries,provinces,cities and industries.As far as Shanxi Province is concerned,the construction industry is one of its pillar industries.It has the characteristics of high energy consumption,high emission,and having many related industries.It is the key field of emission reduction work.Under the goal of "carbon peaking",this paper studies the influencing factors of carbon emissions in the construction industry in Shanxi Province and sets up a scenario model for prediction and analysis,and accordingly proposes energy-saving and carbon reduction measures,in order to provide a reference for Shanxi Province’s construction industry’s carbon reduction action.First of all,based on the IPCC emission coefficient method,this paper builds a carbon emission accounting model for the whole life cycle of Shanxi Province’s construction industry,and calculates its carbon emission of the production stage,transportation stage,construction stage,operation stage,demolition stage and garbage treatment stage of the construction industry from 2005 to 2020.Secondly,according to the accounting process of carbon emissions and the literature review,stepwise regression was used to test the correlation and significance of the influencing factors,and seven influencing factors were obtained,including cement consumption,steel consumption,electricity consumption,per capita disposable income,permanent population,per capita labor productivity and energy intensity.Thirdly,based on the STIRPAT model and the ridge regression analysis method,the contribution rate of cement consumption and other significant factors to the carbon emissions of the construction industry in Shanxi Province was studied.Finally,according to the ranking of the contribution rates of the influencing factors,the resident population,cement consumption,steel consumption,energy intensity,per capita labor productivity influencing factors were selected to set up the inertia,energy saving and low carbon scenario analysis model of the construction industry in Shanxi Province,and the trend and peaking time of carbon emissions of Shanxi Province’s construction industry during2020-2050 were predicted.Based on the above research conclusions,this paper provides policy suggestions and data support for the low-carbon development of the construction industry in Shanxi Province from the aspects of the use of new materials,the promotion of low-carbon buildings,the innovation of energy-saving technologies,the whole-process green construction and so on.