The Influence Of Carbon Emissions On High-Quality Economic Development In Counties Of Yellow River Basin

Improving county economies is the key to achieving the goal of high-quality economy and "double carbon" in developing countries with weak county economies like China,and improving the level of high-quality economic development is currently the top priority for China’s economic development.At present,the level of economic development of counties in the Yellow River Basin is low in quality,and many scholars have studied the impact on high quality economic development from the perspective of technological innovation and environmental regulation at the provincial and municipal levels,while the foundation and potential for promoting high quality development in the Yellow River Basin is in the counties,and many advantages and shortcomings are also in the counties.The increasing speed of China’s comprehensive green and low-carbon economic and social transformation and the proposed "double carbon" target provide an opportunity for the article to explore the impact of carbon emissions on high-quality economic development in the counties of the Yellow River Basin.The research objective of this article is to explore the impact of carbon emissions on the high-quality economic development of the Yellow River Basin counties from the perspective of carbon emissions.Firstly,the relevant domestic and international literature on high-quality economic development and carbon emissions is reviewed,and the mechanism of carbon emissions on high-quality economic development in counties of the Yellow River Basin is analyzed and theoretical hypotheses are put forward,taking Xi Jinping thought on ecological civilization as a guide and incorporating sustainable development theory and externality theory into a unified analysis framework.Then,using 461 county-level panel data in the Yellow River Basin from 2010 to 2017,the entropy weight method is used to measure the level of high-quality economic development of each county in the Yellow River Basin,followed by the systematic GMM model and the spatial Durbin model to explore the impact of carbon emissions on high-quality economic development in counties in the Yellow River Basin and test the relevant theoretical hypotheses,and another robustness analysis,heterogeneity analysis and endogeneity analysis are conducted.It is found that:(1)carbon emissions in Yellow River counties have a significant negative impact on economic quality development,and this result still holds after robustness testing,thus verifying theoretical hypothesis one.(2)The spatial effect analysis shows that there is a negative spatial spillover effect of carbon emissions on economic quality development in Yellow River counties,which means that the theoretical hypothesis two is valid.(3)Moderating effect analysis shows that government environmental governance has a corrective effect on the externalities generated by CO2,which can pose positive and negative externalities,and its conclusion is consistent with theoretical hypothesis three.(4)The intermediary effect analysis shows that: industrial structure plays an intermediary effect in the relationship between carbon emissions and high quality economic development in Yellow River counties,thus verifying theoretical hypothesis four.The innovations of this study mainly include:(1)exploring the impact on high-quality economic development from a new perspective of carbon emissions;(2)using county-level data to assess high-quality economic development and using the spatial Durbin econometric model for empirical investigation;and(3)selecting government environmental governance indicators to analyze the moderating effect.Based on the theoretical mechanism analysis,typical facts presented and relevant conclusions obtained from the econometric model test,the article proposes policy recommendations in four aspects: systematically and scientifically promoting carbon emission reduction,constructing horizontal coordination mechanisms,strengthening government governance functions and promoting industrial structure optimization,which will actively contribute to the achievement of carbon emission reduction targets and improve atmospheric environmental quality,thus promoting the high-quality economic development of counties in the Yellow River Basin.