Research On Risk Evaluation Of Chinese Imported Crude Oil Supply Chain Under External Environment Disturbance

In the face of the increasingly complex international political situation,local geopolitical conflicts and the normalization of the COVID-19 pandemic,the operation of China’s imported crude oil supply chain has been impacted by political,economic,social,technological and natural factors,and even faces the risk of interruption.In the context of complex dynamic external disturbance,it is urgent to deconstruct the risks of imported crude oil supply chain from a systematic perspective,reveal the complex relationship between environmental disturbance factors,and then systematically evaluate the risks of imported crude oil supply chain from the perspective of external environmental disturbance.In order to solve the above scientific problems,based on the thought of system science,this paper firstly reveals the risk system structure,risk formation motivation and mechanism of external environment disturbance in the supply chain of imported crude oil,and uses the Interpretive Structural Model(ISM)to clarify the hierarchical correlation among external environment disturbance factors and reveal the risk formation mechanism.Secondly,the key environmental factors were selected as risk assessment indexes based on entropy weight TOPSIS method,and then the risk assessment index system of imported crude oil supply chain was constructed under external environment disturbance.Furthermore,based on the complexity of the risk system structure of imported crude oil supply chain,the difficulty of acquiring risk assessment data and the independence of evaluation indexes,the fuzzy Bayesian network was selected to construct the risk assessment model of Chinese imported crude oil supply chain under external environment perturbation,and the bidirectional inference function of Bayesian network was used to carry out risk assessment.Finally,the risk assessment of the imported crude oil supply chain of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Company is studied,and the risk control strategy is put forward.It is found that the risk of imported crude oil supply chain under the disturbance of external environment has typical systematic characteristics,and the factors of external environment interference have hierarchical relevance.The evaluation index system includes three criterion layers of supply risk,transport risk and demand risk and 15 indicators.The empirical study found that the supply risk was the highest among the three risk situations that caused the interruption of the imported crude oil supply chain in Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Industry.According to the risk evaluation results,the risk control strategy is designed to provide scientific guidance and reference for the main body of the supply chain to avoid risks and government policy intervention.This study enriched the relevant research literature of Chinese imported crude oil supply chain risk management from the perspective of external environmental disturbances,and provided a new method support for Chinese imported crude oil supply chain risk assessment,and increased the application of system science related ideas in the field of supply chain risk management.