Research On The Flexibility Simulation Of Crude Oil Supply Chain

As an important strategic resource,crude oil is closely related to a nation's economic development.With the enhancement of refining capacity of major petrochemical companies in China,the demand for crude oil has been increasing year by year,lead to a high dependency degree of imported crude oil in recent years.By the end of year 2017,China had become the No.1 country for imported crude oil instead of the United States,and taken the 2^nd position for crude oil consumption all over the world.Being different from traditional supply chain,the structural complexity of China's crude oil supply network will lead to more risks to be confronted in the process of crude oil importation.Meanwhile,the supply chain with a moderate flexibility can adapt to the change better,especially for dealing with general disturbance situations,such as supply reduction,price fluctuation and transport delay of crude oil,etc.Thus,to enhance the flexibility of crude oil supply chain so as to reduce the losses caused by disturbance will be an effective way to ensure the steady development of China's oil industry.Based on studying the relevant references at home and abroad,this thesis analyzes the structure and operation rules of China's crude oil supply chain network,and discovers that lack of flexibility is the core problem for cost increase in the process of crude oil supply when facing those general disturbance situations.Therefore,the thesis defines the concept and characteristics of crude oil supply chain flexibility,analyzes the influence factors of flexibility from internal and external aspects,and provides a basis for the simulation model construction and experiment design next step.Then,the thesis selects appropriate indicators to measure flexibility,constructs a conceptual model for flexibility simulation of crude oil supply chain,and puts forward the corresponding strategies for the design of simulation experiment.After that,the thesis carries out a simulation experiment towards the imported crude oil supply chain of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Company,Sinopec by using AnyLogic8.2.3simulation software,and revels the impacts degree of various strategies to the enhancement of flexibility through several simulation experiments.At last,the thesis comes up with relevant countermeasures for enhancing the flexibility of crude oil supply chain.Being different from the previous researches in theory,this thesis uses a more dynamic and intuitive way that builds a flexible simulation model to deal with general disturbance situations.At the same time,the thesis takes the moderate flexibility as the target,reduces the impact of disturbance by adding the least cost,and provides a basis for enhancing the ability of crude oil supply chain to deal with the unpredictable nature of the environment.