Research On Carbon Emission From Land Use And Its Influencing Factors In Guangdong Province

Nowadays,global climate change has caused various environmental problems.The rapid increase in carbon emission has caused the greenhouse effect to become increasingly obvious,which has severely affected the socio-economic development of all countries.Worldwide,land use change has produced a large amount of carbon emission and become one of the most important carbon sources in the world.Guangdong Province is one of the most economically developed provinces in China.The rapid economic and social development has continuously increased the demand for land and energy.Carbon emission has thus increased rapidly,and sustainable development has been severely challenged.In this context,controlling the excessive increase in land use carbon emission has become an important issue for social development.Therefore,an in-depth study of the characteristics of land use carbon emission changes in Guangdong Province and clarifying the change mechanism of land use carbon emission are of guiding significance for the realization of low-carbon land use in Guangdong Province.Based on the 1999-2018 land use,population,energy,and economic data of Guangdong Province,this paper estimates the carbon emission from land use and analyzes the total carbon emission and its changes in efficiency.And it uses the LMDI model to analyze land use carbon emission influencing factors.Then this paper uses the Tapio decoupling model and the Environmental Kuznets Curve(EKC)hypothesis to verify the relationship between land use carbon emission and economic development from short-term and medium-to-long-term time scales.Finally,the paper uses scenario simulation to predict the emission reduction of land use carbon emission by 2030.The study comes to the following conclusions:(1)In terms of total carbon emission,land use carbon emission in Guangdong has generally been on the rise for the past 20 years,and net emission has increased by 2.21 times.Forest land,garden land and grassland are carbon sink,of which forest land is the main carbon sink.Cultivated land and construction land are carbon source,of which construction land is the main carbon source.In the period,carbon emission continues to increase.The annual contribution rate of construction land carbon emission to land use carbon emission is over90%.The four regions in Guangdong Province have different carbon emission(absorption)due to different development speed,but the changes in carbon emission of cultivated land,construction land and forest land are the same,that is North Guangdong <East Guangdong<West Guangdong <Pearl River Delta.In terms of carbon emission efficiency,the carbon emission intensity per unit of GDP in Guangdong Province has gradually decreased,and the per capita carbon emission and per capita carbon emission have continued to rise.(2)The LMDI model discriminates the influence degree and direction of five influencing factors of land use carbon emission.Among them,economic development,land scale and population scale promote the growth of carbon emission.Economic development plays a major role,followed by land scale and population scale.Energy efficiency and energy structure factors have an inhibitory effect on carbon emission.Energy efficiency has the strongest inhibitory effect,followed by energy structure.(3)The decoupling states of land use carbon emission and economic growth in Guangdong Province are mainly weak decoupling and expansion coupling,and the trend change is weak decoupling-expansion coupling-weak decoupling.Environmental Kuznets Curve(EKC)analysis shows that there is an inverted "N" curve relationship between land use carbon emission and economic growth in Guangdong Province.The results of the short-term decoupling analysis and the mid-and long-term environmental Kuznets curve analysis are consistent,both of which indicate that the land use carbon emission situation in Guangdong Province has undergone a process from deterioration to continuous improvement since 1999.(4)This paper uses the IPAT model to predict the carbon emission of construction land in Guangdong Province by 2030,and finds that only under the positive scenario where the various influencing factors of land use carbon emission are significantly improved,can Guangdong Province achieve all emission reduction targets.In addition,the carbon emission forecast based on the types of land use shows that if all types of land grow at the speed of the land use planning of Guangdong Province,it can ensure that all emission reduction targets will be achieved.The forecast also indicates that if all types of land grow at an average annual rate of historical data,only under a positive scenario can full compliance be guaranteed.