Evaluation And Scenario Simulation Research And Analysis Of Industrial Carbon Emission Efficiency In Jiangsu Province

Since the Industrial Revolution,the increasing demand for fossil energy in the development of human economic activities has led to a sharp increase in CO₂ and other greenhouse gas emissions,posing a serious threat to the survival and development of human society.Jiangsu Province is a relatively developed province in my country,and its industrial carbon emissions are far greater than the national average.In this context,this thesis takes the industrial carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province as the research object.First,the carbon emission coefficient method is used to calculate the industrial carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province,and the characteristics of its carbon emissions are studied and analyzed.Second,the three-stage EBM-DEA efficiency is used.The evaluation model studies the efficiency of industrial carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province,and analyzes its evolution characteristics.Finally,the optimized IPAT model and scenario analysis method are used to simulate and predict the industrial carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province under different scenarios.The main research results and conclusions are as follows:（1）Establish a multi-level research structure system,and analyze the evolution law of industrial carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province from the three levels of energy,province and city.From the perspective of energy,Jiangsu Province is more dependent on coal energy among fossil energy,but the proportion of its use is also declining year by year,and the proportion of relatively clean oil and natural gas is increasing year by year.From the perspective of the provincial level,from 2005 to 2018,the industrial carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province showed a trend of rapid increase at first and then a gradual decrease,and the carbon emission intensity showed a trend of rapid decline at first and then stabilized.From the perspective of the city area,the development status of the 13 prefecture-level cities in Jiangsu Province is different,with obvious spatial differentiation.In general,there is an obvious two-level differentiation pattern,which is characterized by southern Jiangsu>northern Jiangsu.The urban industrial carbon emissions at the northern and southern ends are larger,and the growth rate is significantly higher than that in the central region.（2）A three-stage EBM-DEA efficiency evaluation model was constructed to measure the industrial carbon emission efficiency in Jiangsu Province,and analyze the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of industrial carbon emission efficiency.From the time dimension,the industrial carbon emission efficiency of Jiangsu Province shows an overall upward trend.The pattern and distribution characteristics of the northern region.（3）An extended IPAT model was constructed,and a scenario simulation system was established based on the model to simulate and predict carbon emissions under different scenarios.In the future,the industrial carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province will show a trend of increasing first and then decreasing;both can achieve the prospect of carbon peaking in 2030.Among the preferred loose mode,benchmark mode and strict control mode,the benchmark mode is more suitable for the industrial development of Jiangsu Province.situation.The thesis has 16 figures,13 tables,and 83 references.