Research On Carbon Emission Inventory Of Beijing-tianjin-hebei Industrial Production And Scenario Analysis Of Industrial Low-carbon Develpoment In Tangshan

The People’s Republic China pledges to achieve a carbon emission peak by 2030and carbon neutrality by 2060.Both the energy supply system and energy consumption patterns need to be transformed to achieve this goal.The main source of carbon emissions is the burning of fossil fuels,moreover,the industrial energy consumption has always accounted for more than 70%of total energy consumption.Meanwhile,the decomposition of raw materials during industrial production process also produces a large amount of carbon emissions.This article established a bottom-up mathematical model of industrial point-source energy consumption and carbon emission accounting according to the industrial production laws and actual operating parameters of steel,cement,thermal power and synthetic ammonia enterprises in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.Subsequently,the spatial distribution characteristics and temporal changes of carbon emissions of industrial point source were analyzed using the above-mentioned accounting models,macro statistics.And the 2018 carbon emission inventory of key industries in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region wans established by the combination of bottom-up and top-down methods.The scenario analysis methods were used to analyze the historical changes（2010-2018）and predict the future development（2019-2030）of industrial energy consumption and carbon emissions in a typical heavy industry city Tangshan with the LEAP（Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System）model,moreover,the achievability of Tangshan’s industrial carbon neutral goals was discussed and several low-carbon development paths were proposed.The mathematical relationship between the design capacity of production,capacity utilization,production time,unit product energy consumption and carbon emissions are conducted through a sample database covering 301 industrial point sources,and a numerical accounting model of direct CO₂ emissions for different scale of equipments in the cement and steel industries are initially established.The calculation results show that the average relative error of cement clinker production in the base year and official statistics is 7.81%;the relative errors of iron and steel are 7.9%and 4.7%,respectively.The carbon emission coefficient of cement clinker production is 0.93t CO₂/t clinker,which is 7.27%lower than the domestic average;the carbon emission coefficient of steel production is 1.616t CO₂/t steel,compared with the national steel carbon emission coefficient of 1.765t CO2/t steel in 2020,the relative error is 8.4%.The sintering process is 0.19t CO₂/t sinter,and the process of ironmaking is 1.27t CO_2/t iron.Therefore,the accounting model is accurate and can be used to account carbon emissions.Furthermore,a carbon emission inventory of key industries in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei is established.In 2018,industrial production emits a total of 581.44 million tons of CO₂,meanwhile,the steel industry emits 321.74 million tons of CO₂,accounting for55.33%of the total emissions.Except for power enterprise,the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has a relatively concentrated distribution of industrial carbon emission point sources,presenting a concentrated distribution in the east and west,the central part is less distributed,however,there is no significant fluctuation in monthly carbon emissions.Through scenario analysis,Tangshan City’s industrial production carbon emissions would reach the peak in 2019,with a peak value of approximately 361.19million tons.The production capacity reduction scenario,the energy efficiency improvement scenario,and the comprehensive low-carbon scenario will reduce carbon emissions by 9.19%,25.7%,and 44%from the baseline scenario to 2030,respectively,and the comprehensive low-carbon scenario is the best achievable development scenario.On the basis of a comprehensive low-carbon scenario,Tangshan’s industrial sector should adhere to two parallel paths.The first is source governance,which is change the industrial structure rationally,reducing the use of fossil fuels,and increasing the proportion of clean energy.The second is end treatment,which is reduce the cost of Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage technology,and building carbon capture devices comprehensively.The goal of realized carbon neutral by 2060 would be possibly achieved by the above two paths.