Research On The Influence Of International Oil Price On Price Fluctuation

Oil is an important input in the national economy and an important strategic resource.In recent years,the international oil price fluctuates violently,China’s price level also fluctuates very violently due to the influence of oil price.In this context,this paper explores the impact of the fluctuation of international oil prices on the fluctuation of China’s price level in recent years.This paper first sorts out and summarizes the theoretical research results on oil price fluctuations at home and abroad,and analyzes the relevant literature content about the impact of international oil prices on prices,including the impact of international oil price fluctuations on domestic prices.The impact of international oil price fluctuations on domestic prices study of the conduction mechanism.This paper compares the research results at home and abroad,points out the insufficiency of domestic and foreign scholars’research on oil price fluctuation,and designs the research idea of this paper.Further,this paper points out the characteristics of current oil price fluctuations,and finds out the correlation between China’s price level and international oil prices.The general equilibrium theory is used to analyze how the oil price change affects the price change.Next,this paper constructs a vector autoregressive VECM model to empirically test POI,CPI,M2,EXPORT,IND,TCG and other indicators.Then through impulse analysis,variance decomposition analysis,etc.to explore the degree of oil price fluctuations affecting price changes.The following conclusions are drawn:From the perspective of mean utility,there is a two-way asymmetric mean utility between the international oil price and the five values affecting domestic prices,and there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between the two market prices.From the perspective of mutual influence,the international oil price is very weakly affected by the five factors that affect the domestic price.In comparison,the international oil price has a great reference role in leading the domestic price.Judging from the speed at which the short-term price deviates from the balance,the international oil market adjusts the short-term price that deviates from the balance more quickly,which shows that its price guidance and discovery capabilities are stronger.At the end of the article,in order to reduce the impact on prices,it is necessary to raise the policy recommendations of oil price fluctuations.In order to reduce the internal fluctuation of oil,first of all,we should strengthen the construction of China’s oil reserve system,at the same time,improve the efficiency of oil energy,vigorously develop renewable new energy sources,and reduce dependence on imported oil.