The Fluctuation Characteristics,Influencing Factors And Prediction Analysis Of Carbon Emission Trading Price In Guangdong Province

Since 2011,in order to actively cope with climate change,China has launched eight carbon trading pilot cities,including Hubei and Guangdong,among which Guangdong is the largest carbon trading market in terms of scale and volume.Therefore,it is a subject of both theoretical and practical value to deeply explore the volatility characteristics and influencing factors of carbon emission trading prices in Guangdong and to predict them.As for the fluctuating characteristics of carbon trading prices in Guangdong,the GARCH family model is established in this paper,and it is found that the price yield of Guangdong carbon market fluctuates sharply,the risk is large,the correlation between yield and risk is not close,and the impact of bad news is more severe than good news.As for the relevant influencing factors of carbon trading price in Guangdong,this paper studied the climate environment,macro economy,energy price,international market,COVID-19 and other aspects,and selected variables from these five perspectives to carry out an empirical analysis of carbon trading price in Guangdong.The results show that the most significant factor affecting the carbon trading price in Guangdong is energy price,and the two are negatively correlated.The second is the macro economy,which has a positive correlation,and the second is the COVID-19 pandemic,which has a negative correlation.For the prediction of carbon trading price,the fitting prediction accuracy of GARCH(1,1)model and multivariate time series ARIMAX model is compared.It is found that the prediction accuracy of carbon price in Guangdong Province is higher when the ARIMAX model takes domestic natural gas price as the input variable,indicating that ARIMAX is very effective as a model for predicting carbon trading price in Guangdong Province.The research conclusion of this paper shows that: Large changes in the carbon market price will increase the uncertainty of the company’s emission reduction and hinder the smooth realization of the national "carbon neutrality" goal.Therefore,this paper proposes to establish and improve the price regulation mechanism of Guangdong carbon trading market,accurately grasp the timing of regulation,rationally regulate related markets,reduce energy consumption intensity and reduce energy consumption per unit of GDP and other policy suggestions.It is expected to contribute to the stabilization of carbon trading prices in Guangdong,the promotion of online trading in the national carbon trading market and the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions.