Study On The Influence Of International Oil Price Fluctuation On China’s Price Level

The natural properties of oil and its development from raw materials of industrial production to important strategic resources determine the vital position of oil in China’s economic development.Under the background of rapid economic development and the increasing dependence of oil demand on foreign countries,China can only passively accept the influence of international oil price fluctuations.In the process of transmission of international oil price fluctuation to China’s oil market,various industries will be under different degrees of price shocks due to their different demand for oil,and then affect the price level and economic operation.Therefore,it is of great importance to study the impact of international oil price changes on China’s price level from both theoretical and practical perspectives.The first chapter elaborates the research background,significance,research ideas,innovations and shortcomings of this paper.The second chapter summarizes the literature related to the topic from different perspectives,and reviews the merits and demerits of the research ideas proposed in the literature.The third chapter expounds the domestic and foreign oil price fluctuations,and analyzes the reasons of international oil price fluctuations from five angles.The fourth chapter first introduces the price transmission mechanism,and then carries on the theoretical analysis of the transmission path assumptions based on oil and gas products,chemical products and food.The fifth chapter constructs the vector auto-regressive(VAR)model and analyzes the effect intensity and effectiveness of each conduction path from the empirical point of view.The empirical results of this paper show that the international oil price fluctuations can effectively impact the domestic price market through three transmission paths.In the transmission based on oil and gas products,the fluctuation of international oil price affects the transportation and communication price index by affecting the fuel power purchase price index;In the transmission based on chemical products,the fluctuation of international oil price affects the producer price index and consumer price index of China by affecting the chemical raw material purchase price index;In the transmission based on food,international oil price affects China’s food price index by influencing international food price.Finally,based on the three effective conduction paths,the order of the effectiveness of the three conduction paths is determined by further comparative study,ranking from strong to weak as follows: the conduction path of chemical products,the conduction path of food products and the conduction path of oil and gas products,and policy suggestions are put forward accordingly.