Study On The Impact Of The Coal Price Fluctuation On China’s Price Level

China’s basic national policy of reform and opening up has been implementation nearly 40 years.After 30 years of sustained and rapid development,China’s economy and society have undergone enormous changes,has gradually devolved from a low-income country into a middle-income country.However,in the achievement of the achievements,China is also facing many very serious problems caused by the past blind development at the same time,including environmental pollution,overcapacity,debt surges,etc.,which have aroused the attention of the whole society.The use of various types of energy,especially fossil fuels,is a very important part of the development of today’s society,but the pollution of the fossil fuels are also shocking.However,due to the existence of "rich coal,lean oil,less gas",the special energy endowments of China,so coal occupies an important position in China’s energy supply.Based on this,the study of coal price fluctuations on China’s price level impact is of great significance.The purpose of this paper is to study the influence of coal price fluctuation on China’s price level by using fixed and time-varying parameters.In the fixed parameters,the use of China’s 2012 input-output basic table to calculate the consumption of various sectors of the coal sector coefficient,and then use the input-output price model,study the price of coal prices on the product sector price size.This paper studies the influence of coal price fluctuation on China’s CPI,PPI and GDP deflator by setting the price of electric power uncontrolled and controlled in view of the fact that China does not release the electricity price at present.The results show that the main departments affected by coal price in China are mainly the industrial sectors in the secondary industry,and the primary and tertiary industries are less affected.The fluctuation of coal price has little effect on China’s consumption,PPI and GDP deflator.When the price of electricity is controlled,it can offset the negative impact of some coal price fluctuations on China’s economy.In the aspect of time-varying parameters,the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model is used to analyze the coal-price index,PPI and above-scale industrial added value growth rate in China from 2002 to 2016.The empirical results show that the relationship between the three variables has changed with the economic development.On the whole,the coal price itself,PPI has a great influence on the coal price,and the effect of the industrial growth rate on the coal price is relatively small.The impulse response of coal price to PPI and industrial growth shows a negative impact,which is not consistent with the traditional knowledge of economics.This paper has a simple explanation.