Study On The Seasonal Fluctuation Laws And Influence Factors Of EUA Price

The climate problems caused by global greenhouse gas emissions have caused people’s production and living to suffer.Many countries also carry out the economic development of low-carbon emission reduction.Based on the prices of BlueNext and ECX exchanges with the largest proportion of carbon spot transactions and the most active transactions,this paper empirically analyzes the seasonal fluctuations of EUA price and its influencing factors.First,the existence of seasonal fluctuations in the EU carbon price is tested.After the seasonal adjustment of the original price series through the X-13-ARIMA-SEATS program,the results indicate that for the first phase of the BlueNext exchange,the carbon price does not change with seasonal changes;The seasonal fluctuations reflected by the carbon price in the second phase of BlueNext and the third phase of ECX are very significant.Then,by decomposing the original carbon price series into the seasonal factor sequence,it is found that there is a characteristic of “double peaks and single valleys”— the carbon price in the summer and winter seasons is rising,and the carbon price falls in the spring and autumn;and compared to the impact of winter on carbon prices,the effect of summer on prices is even greater.Finally,this paper uses a combination of theoretical analysis and empirical research to select the second phase of the BlueNext,ECX’s third phase of the EUA price monthly sequence as a sample of the study.The traditional fossil energy prices(natural gas,coal,crude oil),electricity prices,rainfall and temperature are regarded as the influencing factors.We use quantitative analysis to study the influencing factors of EUA price.As a result,it has been found that in different carbon trading venues and in different carbon trading phases,different impact factors and EUA price fluctuations have different relationships and cannot be confused.