| Water scarcity and excessive carbon dioxide(CO2)emission continue to be challenges faced by decision makers in regional scale.In this study,three models are developed through incorporating input-output analysis(IOA)and multivariate statistical analysis(MSA)within a general framework.These models can help:(ⅰ)analyze the complicated characteristics of reginal economy-water-carbon system;(ⅱ)quantify the influence of multiple management strategies on the system;(ⅲ)disclose the individual and interactive effects of multiple factors.This study aims to provide theoretical support for a healthy environment and healthy economy.Firstly,a multi-scenario factorial analysis and multi-region input-output(MFA-MRIO)model is developed through coupling MRIO with factorial analysis.This model is applied to analyzing CO2 emission reduction path for Jing-Jin-Ji region.Compared with the previous models,MFA-MRIO has advantages in evaluating CO2 emission and simulating CO2 emission mitigation pathways,as well as quantifying individual and interactive effects of multi-factor,multi-sector and multi-city for urban agglomeration.The major findings are:(ⅰ)the direction of the regional CO2 emission would be transferred from the city with rich resources and heavy industries to other cities that have new technology industries and developed tertiary industries;(ⅱ)when GDP growth rate increases from 5%to 7%,the total CO2 emission would increase by 25.5%and the carbon intensity would decline by 3.7%;(ⅲ)the direct CO2 emissions of Tianjin and Hebei’s metal and electricity and heat industries,and Hebei’s mining and machinery industries should be strictly controlled under a high GDP growth rate;(ⅳ)the final demands of Tianjin and Hebei’s electricity and heat industries-and Hebei’s machinery industry should be strictly controlled,as well as the final demands of Tianjin and Hebei’s metal industries,and Hebei’s mining industry should be loosely controlled under a high GDP growth rate.Secondly,a multivariate statistical input-output model(MSIO)is proposed through incorporating IOA with MSA(i.e.principal components analysis,K-means cluster analysis,and factorial analysis)tools.This model is applied to analyzing economy-water-carbon system for Jing-Jin-Ji region.Compared with the previous models.MSIO is superior in:(ⅰ)recognizing the complicated characteristics of multi-element,multi-sector and multi-factor in economy-water-carbon system from network and statistical perspectives;(ⅱ)simulating different technology-upgrade policies on key transmission sectors that are the middle nodes of supply chain paths;(ⅲ)quantifying the individual and interactive effects of sectors on water-carbon variations.The major findings are:(ⅰ)for Jing-Jin-Ji region in 2030,agriculture,service and food industries would be typical water consumers(accounting for 35.0%,22.8%and 10.8%,respectively);metal,service,and electricity and heat industries would be typical CO2 emitters(accounting for 24.1%,22.0%and 19.7%.respectively);(ⅱ)based on indirect water-carbon flows,CO2 reduction policy could aim at the sectors of cluster 1(i.e.energy production,manufacturing.construction and service industries);policy oriented toward water resource could aim at the sectors of cluster 2(i.e.agriculture,food and textile industries);(ⅲ)when considering technology-upgrade policy on multiple sectors,the synergy of Hebei’s energy.chemical,metal and machinery industries,and Beijing’s electricity and heat industry would be optimal for the economy-water-carbon management.Finally,a stepwise-cluster and factorial-analysis-based input-output model(SFIO)is developed through integrating stepwise cluster analysis and factorial analysis into IO model.This model is applied to investigating economy-water-carbon system for China.Compared with the previous models,SFIO is superior in:(ⅰ)analyzing the complicated characteristics of economy-water-carbon system from demand-and supply-side perspectives;(ⅱ)simulating different supply-side policies(input-oriented and output-oriented strategies)on key sectors(from income-based accounting);(ⅲ)quantifying the individual and interactive effects of multi-sector,multi-strategy and multi-factor.The major findings are:(ⅰ)from the demand-side perspective,agriculture,food and construction industries would be typical water consumers(accounting for 25.4%,22.8%and 12.5%,respectively);construction,manufacturing and other service industries would be typical CO2 emitters(accounting for 31.5%,19.6%and 14.1%,respectively);(ⅱ)from the supply-side perspective,agriculture,other service,and energy and water supply industries would be typical water consumers(accounting for 56.9%,7.6%and 5,7%,res.pectively);energy and water supply,other service and metal industries would be typical CO2 emitters(accounting for 31.5%,12.3%and 12.2%,respectively);(ⅲ)when conducting policies on multiple sectors,it would be effective for the economy-water-carbon management to reduce the primary input of agricultural and the allocated outputs of food,chemical and service industries;it also would be effective to reduce the primary input of energy and water supply industry,and the allocated outputs of chemical,service and machinery industries.Generally,IOA and MSA are integrated in this study to analyze regional(country and urban agglomeration)economy-water-carbon system from multi-perspective,multi-dimensional and multi-level views,which can help identify the complex characteristics and relationships within the system and provide policy suggestions for the regional sustainable development. |
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