| At present,the environmental pollution caused by human production activities has become a major threat to the sustainable development of society.In many problems associated with pollution,global climate change caused by excessive carbon dioxide emissions has become the hottest and most concerned environmental issue.Especially,the global greenhouse effect caused by excessive carbon dioxide emissions has become more and more prominent since the 21st century.Therefore,actively carrying out carbon emissions reduction can not only protect the ecological environment,but also ensure the sustainability of both economic and social development.However,among the many sources of carbon emissions,energy-related carbon emissions are considered as the main source,and the consumption and production of energy sources are main from the industry and energy system.The focus of emissions reduction naturally falls on the control of energy-related carbon emissions from the industry and energy system.Based on this,this paper adopts energy consumption method,input-output analysis and extended structural decomposition analysis,and takes 2007-2015 as the sample interval.First,it analyzes the impact of four factors on the carbon emissions measurement results of China’s industry and energy system.Then,considering the two factors of energy export and energy capital deposit and loan,it analyzes the evolution characteristics of carbon emissions structure of China’s industry and energy system.Moreover,it further analyzes structural emissions reduction of fossil energy,power and heating energy and China’s industrial system,and detailedly analyzes the roles of various energy sources in the energy structure effect and the industry in the final demand effect.Finally,it analyzes the differences and and the optimization degree of carbon emissions efficiency in China’s industrial system.The conclusions are as follows.First,we calculate the carbon emissions,and analyze their influencing factors of China’s industrial and energy system.The research results show that if any of the factors of energy conversion,energy capital investment,energy export and carbon emissions in cement process are ignored,the errors in carbon emissions calculation results will appear.Specifically,taking 2012 as an example,the impact of the four factors on the error of carbon emissions measurement results from intermediate use are cement production process（the result will be 10.63%lower due to missing）,energy capital deposit and loan（the result will be 1.38%lower due to missing）,energy export（the result will be 1.02%lower due to missing）and energy conversion（the result will be0.16%higher due to missing）from strong to weak;The impact of the four factors on the error of carbon emissions measurement results from the final carbon are the energy capital deposit and loan（missing will lead to 35.71%higher）,the energy export（missing will lead to a higher 26.35%）,the energy conversion（missing will result in a lower 4.17%）and the cement production（without any impact）from strong to weak;The total carbon emissions are only affected by the carbon emissions of the cement production process.Second,this paper studies the structural carbon emissions of China’s industrial and energy systems and their driving force.The results show that on the supply-side,the optimization of energy consumption structure results in a decline in the share of carbon emissions from high-carbon energy（raw coal,diesel oil,combustion oil,etc.）and a rise in the share of carbon emissions from low-carbon energy（natural gas,other gas,etc.）in energy systems.Moreover,the structure optimization of low-carbon energy is generally more robust than that of high-carbon energy,and 2012-2015 is the optimal period for energy consumption structure in the study interval.On the demand-side,intermediate use（firms）remains the main driving force for structural evolution of energy carbon emissions,while final use（individuals and government）has a limited driving effect on energy carbon emissions.Specific to the industrial level,the role of light industry,heavy industry,construction industry,service industry,transportation,power sector and agriculture in the intermediate use shows a downward trend,while the role of chemical industry and fossil energy sector shows a fluctuating upward trend.This indicates that the change of industrial structure is closely related to energy carbon emissions.Third,this paper studies the structural emissions reduction of China’s fossil energy system industrial system.The results show that from the analysis of structural emissions reduction factors,the input structure effect and energy structure effect have inhibited the growth of energy-related carbon emissions.Among them,the input structure effect is the main determinant of emissions reduction,while the energy structure effect is limited.Meanwhile,the emission reduction effects of these two effects are increasing with time,and the intensity effect and final demand effect of fossil energy promote the growth of energy-related carbon emissions.Among them,the promotion effect of energy intensity effect is limited,and the final demand effect is the main determinant to promote the growth of fossil energy-related carbon emissions.From the analysis of energy system on the energy supply-side,the emissions reduction effect of blast furnace gas,raw coal,refinery dry gas and natural gas are obvious,while that of other gas,crude oil,fuel oil and other petroleum products are subtle.From the analysis of industrial systems on the energy demand-side,the secondary industry plays a major role in the final demand effect,followed by tertiary industries and the primary industry in turn.However,the direct consumption coefficient of fossil energy in the tertiary industry and the primary industry is generally lower than that in the secondary industry,so the optimization of industrial structure is conducive to mitigating the growth of carbon emissions brought about by the demand effect.Forth,this paper studies the structural emissions reduction of China’s power and heating energy system and industrial system.The results show that from the analysis on the factors affecting the emissions reduction of power and heating energy,the energy structure effect,the energy intensity effect and the input structure effect have reduction effects on the growth of energy-related carbon emissions,and the reduction effects of these three effects show increasing trends with time.Among them,the input structure effect is the main determinant of the emissions reduction of power and heating energy,the energy intensity effect is the second,and the energy structure effect is the weakest.The final demand effect is the main factor to promote the growth of power and heating energy-related CO2 emissions,and this promotion effect exhibits a growing trend with time.From the analysis of the energy system on the supply-side,the low-carbon energy sources such as blast furnace gas,coke oven gas,converter gas and natural gas generally have emission reduction effect,while except for raw coal and crude oil,other high carbon energy sources such as diesel,fuel oil and washed coal have no obvious emission reduction effects.From the analysis of the industrial systems on the demand-side,the tertiary industry plays a major role in the final demand effect.However,the direct consumption coefficient of heating and power energy in the tertiary industry and the primary industry is generally lower than that in the secondary industry,so the optimization of industrial structure is conducive to mitigating the growth of power and heating energy-related carbon emissions brought about by the demand effect.Fifth,this paper studies the differences and the optimization degree of China’s industrial carbon emissions efficiency.The results show that,firstly,in terms of measuring the carbon emission efficiency of China’s industry,if the carbon emission of cement production is ignored,the result of carbon emission efficiency of heavy industry will be overestimated over 30%.Secondly,the carbon emissions efficiency of various industries in China is quite different.Among these,the carbon emission efficiency of light industry,agriculture,service industry and construction industry is high;whereas that of power sector,fossil energy,transportation,chemical industry and heavy industry is low.Finally,the carbon emission efficiency of various industries in China is optimized to varying degrees.Among them,the carbon emission efficiency optimization of agriculture,construction,light industry and service industry is are extremely obvious;the carbon emission efficiency optimization of power sector,heavy industry,transportation and chemical industry is obvious;the carbon emission efficiency of fossil energy sector is reduced by about 0.2 times.The innovations of this paper are reflected in the following three aspects.Firstly,through the input-output analysis framework,the carbon emissions of the energy system on the production side and the industrial system on the consumption side are unified.Then,we analyze the evolution characteristics and driving factors of carbon emission structure of China’s industry and energy system,taking into account the two factors of energy export and energy capital deposit and loan.This study is conducive to more intuitive and objective description of the historical evolution characteristics of energy carbon emission structure in the past,and then reveals the historical achievements and defects of China’s energy carbon emissions,so as to provide policy reference for China’s energy carbon emission reduction.Secondly,according to the input-output analysis theory,considering the energy carbon emission as the unexpected output of the industrial system,the four fossil energy sectors and the power and heating energy sector are unified into the energy system analysis framework.The existing literature mainly focuses carbon emission from fossil energy source based on input-output analysis,and ignores implied carbon emission from power and heating energy.Based on input-output analysis,17 kinds of fossil energy and power and heating energy are integrated into the carbon emission analysis framework of energy system.This study can not only analyze the carbon emission of fossil energy in the process of energy input,but also analyze the carbon emission of power and heating energy in the process of energy input,which is conducive to a more comprehensive and systematic analysis of the carbon emission and reduction of the energy system on the production side and the industrial system on the consumption side.Thirdly,on basis of expanding the structural decomposition model,this paper not only analyzes the effects of energy structure effect,energy intensity effect,input structure effect and final demand effect on the growth of carbon emission from fossil energy and power and heating energy,but also analyzes the effect of 17 kinds of energy in the energy structure effect of fossil energy and power and heating energy,and the effect of nine industries in the final demand effect of fossil energy and power and heating energy based on the perspective of input-output analysis.This study provides practical guidance for China’s industry and energy system to implement emission reduction more accurately from the energy type and industrial level. |
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