Optimization Of Industrial Structure In China Based On "Double Peak Of Water And Carbon"

With the development of economy,China is faced with the deterioration of water resources,serious air pollution and other urgent problems.From the signing of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in 1992 to the 2012 Opinion on the Implementation of the Most Stringent Water Resources Management System,then to the adoption of the 2015 Paris Agreement,China has assumed the responsibility of a major country to support and participate in energy conservation and emission reduction.The smooth progress of this work needs to rely on the overall cooperation and rational distribution of various industries of the economy,so the study of the industrial structure optimization under the constraints of water-carbon coupling has important theoretical and practical significance.Combined with input-output based multi-objective optimization model,this paper forecast the future water consumption and carbon emissions from the water carbon coupling emergy analysis point of view(carbon refers to CO2 mentioned in this paper),and compare the results under different scenarios.Based on a lot of reference to relevant literature at home and abroad,this paper summarizes the theory of input and output analysis,multi-objective optimization and water carbon coupling and emergy analysis.On this basis,the current situation of water consumption and carbon emission,water use efficiency and carbon emission intensity in 2015 was firstly statistically analyzed and described.The transformity was used to unify the measurement of water and carbon,and the emergy and emergy intensity of various industries were analyzed.Second,the national policy about water and carbon in 2030 is disassembled,and respectively calculate the water carbon policy goals of 2020 and 2015.And through the econometric method,based on the history and current situation of water consumption and carbon emissions,get another result for 2020.At the same time,the 2015 and 2017 42 sector IO tables will be consolidated into 17,and the 2017 input-output structure remains unchanged,the import and export value and other data is calculated through the average annual growth rate.So make preparations for the optimization of industrial structure.Finally,the multi-objective optimization model of industrial structure is constructed,and the objectives of minimizing water consumption and carbon emissions are converted into constraints.The solution is conducted by Matlab software.(1)Although the role of the secondary industry in the national economy in 2015 is still relatively large,the optimization results show that scientific research and technical services in the tertiary industry,as well as information transmission,software and information technology services should get rapid developement.The development of some light industries should still be encouraged,while the development of the oil refining,coking and chemical industries in the energy sector,and the electricity and water,and non-metallic mineral products as well as primary industries,which have high water-carbon emergy and intensity,should be limited.(2)There is a good chance that the 2030 target will be met.First of all,in 2015 real industrial structure and policies of the industrial structure has a high correlation(but there are still a large optimization space).Second,optimization results of 2020 forecast situation and policy situation are very consistent,which suggests that,in accordance with the existing social and economic and technical development trend,adjust the direction,to achieve the requirement of the 2020,meet the requirement of“double peak of water and carbon ”in 2030 is entirely possible.(3)Combining the optimization results for 2015 and 2020,increasing the proportion of the tertiary industry has always been the focus of the updating of China’s industrial structure.While the wholesale and retail,transportation,warehousing and postal industry,metal smelting,processing and products industry,as well as the development of refining,coking and chemical products should always be limited.The intensity of the development restrictions of the first industry has decreased.Based on the above calculations and empirical results,this paper puts forward policy proposals to encourage the development of the tertiary industry,develop light industry moderately,and increase investment in agricultural science and technology.