Research On Land Use Carbon Emissions And Forecasting In Nine Provinces And Regions In The Yellow River Basin

With the continuous development of technological productivity and the continuous improvement of the level of urbanization,the carbon emissions caused by industrial production and human activities continue to increase,the climate is warming,and disasters occur frequently,affecting the normal production and life of human beings.Humans will produce a large amount of carbon emissions in the process of land use,which is one of the most important carbon sources in the world.Moreover,my country is currently in the bottleneck period of economic and social development,which needs to consume a lot of energy,and the pressure on carbon emission reduction is severe.This study is based on land use,population,energy and economic data from 1990 to 2018 in nine provinces and regions in the Yellow River Basin,including Qinghai,Sichuan,Gansu,Shaanxi,Ningxia,Inner Mongolia,Shanxi,Henan and Shandong,using carbon emissions from the IPCC inventory method.The coefficient method,combined with the energy consumption data,calculates the land use carbon emissions.On this basis,the LMDI model is used to decompose and analyze the influencing factors of land use carbon emissions,and a system dynamics prediction model is constructed to predict the future land use carbon emissions in the study area.The main conclusions of this study are as follows:(1)Based on remote sensing data,the ArcGIS software was used for classification and statistical analysis,and the results showed that the land use types in the study area were mainly grassland,cultivated land and forest land.In 1990,grassland accounted for the largest proportion,accounting for 40.17%,followed by cultivated land and forest land,accounting for 18.92% and 15.18%,respectively;in 2000,grassland accounted for 39.86%,cultivated land accounted for 19.26%,and forest land accounted for 15.04%;In 2010,grassland accounted for 38.46%,cultivated land accounted for 19.06%,and forest land accounted for 15.65%;in 2018,grassland accounted for 38.52%,cultivated land accounted for 18.84%,and forest land accounted for 15.56%.From 1990 to 2018,in general,the area of cultivated land decreased,the area of forest land increased,the area of grassland decreased,the area of water area increased,the area of construction land increased,and the area of unused land increased.(2)Based on the data of land,economy and energy,the carbon emission coefficient method in the IPCC inventory method is used to calculate the land use carbon emission in the study area.The results show that the net carbon emission in the study area has been increasing from 1990 to 2018.In 1990,it was 253.4937 million tons,in 2000 it was 351.4027 million tons,in 2010 it was 1124.5163 million tons,in 2018 it was 1574.9942 million tons,and the growth rate was larger from 2000 to 2010,with an increase of 773.1136 million tons.Carbon sinks are relatively stable,35.6951 million tons in 1990,35.4033 million tons in 2000,36.6656 million tons in 2010,and 36.5637 million tons in 2018,with small changes.The amount of carbon sources continued to increase,with 289.1888 million tons in 1990,386.8060 million tons in 2000,1161.1819 million tons in 2010,and 1611.5579 million tons in 2018.The changes vary greatly,and the carbon sink isfar less than the carbon source.Therefore,the net carbon emissions in the study area showed a continuous growth trend,and the increase rate was relatively large.This shows that the carbon sink effect of related land types within the study area is not significant,and it is impossible to offset the carbon emissions generated in the process of land use.(3)The overall average carbon emission intensity value and per capita carbon emission intensity value in the study area have been increasing,and the carbon emission intensity per unit of GDP has gradually decreased.In 1990,the land-average carbon emission intensity was 0.73t/hm2,and the per capita carbon emission intensity was 0.69t/person;in 2000,they were 1.01t/hm2 and 0.89t/person,respectively;/person,in 2018,it was 4.51t/hm2 and 3.63t/person respectively,which shows that the overall carbon emission pressure in the study area is increasing,and the values of the above two indicators in most provinces in the area are also increasing,indicating that most of the The carbon emission pressure of the provinces is also increasing;the carbon emission intensity per unit of GDP in the study area and most provinces in the region gradually decreased,which was 5.21t/10,000 yuan in 1990,1.46t/10,000 yuan in 2000,and 0.95 in 2010.t/10,000 yuan,and 0.66t/10,000 yuan in 2018,indicating that the land use and economic development of the study area as a whole and most provinces in the area are in step with economic development,and the coordination is reasonable.(4)Use the LMDI model to decompose the influencing factors of land use carbonemissions in the study area,and obtain the specific contribution value of each influencingfactor.Among the influencing factors,the factors of population scale,economic scale andland use structure will increase the carbon emission of land use in the study area,and thefactor of land use efficiency will reduce the carbon emission of land use in the study area.From 1990 to 2000,the change of population size factors in the study area contributed23.5547 million tons to the overall carbon emissions in the study area,the industrialeconomic factor was 479.8037 million tons,the land use structure factor was 97.9109 million tons,and the land use efficiency factor was-479.8056 million tons;from 2000 to2010,the contribution value of the population scale factor was 33.1783 million tons,theindustrial economic factor was 1055.1557 million tons,the land use structure factor was773.099 million tons,and the land use efficiency factor was-1055.1410 million tons;2010-2018,the contribution value of the population scale factor is 54.9009 million tons,theindustrial economic factor is 941.5071 million tons,the land use structure factor is 451.0490 million tons,and the land use efficiency factor is-942.0781 million tons.(5)Predict the overall future land use carbon emissions in the study area with the help of the system dynamics model.According to the forecast,in 2035,the carbon source in the study area will be 53.39 million tons,the carbon sink will be 34.41 million tons,and the net carbon emission(cumulative)will be 280.4 million tons.At the same time,under the low-speed economic development scenario,the net carbon emission in the study area will be(cumulative)is 230.7 million tons,280.4 million tons under the scenario of stable economic development,and 356.1 million tons under the scenario of low-speed economic development.