The Impact Of Air Pollution On Migration Decision And Labor Supply Of Floating Population

As the problem of air pollution becomes more and more serious,fine particulate matter represented by PM2.5 has a more profound impact on people’s health and behavioral decision-making.As an important part of my country’s economy,the floating population are more susceptible to the impact of air pollution because they need to go out frequently to find jobs.How does air pollution affect the migration decision of the floating population?Is the impact of air pollution on the migration of floating population related to household registration characteristics?Studying the process of air pollution on the floating population and the heterogeneous impact on different groups can optimize migration decision-making for the floating population,avoid population fluctuations and brain drain for the government,which is of great significance.This paper uses the 2013-2017 CMDS data and PM2.5 data from the Atmospheric Composition Analysis Group of Dalhousie University,and based on the conditional logit model to calculate the intentional mobile cities of the floating population from the same registered province.Based on this,a matching sample is generated to estimate the impact of air pollution on the migration decision of the floating population.In order to overcome the endogenousness,this paper uses the air flow coefficient as an instrumental variable of PM2.5 for regression,eliminating the potential interference of the socio-economic environment on the effect of air pollution.Furthermore,in order to analyze the heterogeneous impact of the household registration system on the floating population,according to the household registration,the floating population is divided into ’country-urban’ floating population and‘city-city’floating population,and the household registration type and PM2.5 are added to the conditional logit model.The interaction terms of PM2.5 are compared and analyzed to deduce the role of household registration system in the impact of air pollution on population migration.In addition,this paper conducts an empirical analysis on the CMDS data of 2017,examines the impact of air pollution on the labor supply and willingness to stay after the floating population migrate to the city,and analyzes the moderating effect of self-rated health.The main research conclusions obtained in this paper are as follows:First,under the setting of the benchmark regression,the migration choices of the floating population and air pollution show a negative correlation,and the conclusion remains unchanged after adding the income expectation term and the city-level characteristic variables.Secondly,the income expectation of the floating population has a positive impact on their migration location decisions.The higher the income expected in a new city,the greater the possibility of making migration choices.In addition,the impact of air pollution on the migration decision-making of floating population varies with the nature of household registration.’City-to-city’ floating population is more likely to make migration decisions.When air pollution worsens,the migration decision-making of’city-to-city’ floating population will be negatively affected.The impact is greater than the ’rural-urban’ floating population.Finally,air pollution negatively affects the labor supply of the floating population by jeopardizing the healthy human capital of the floating population,and has an inhibitory effect on the long-term willingness of the floating population to stay in the current city.