| Water resources are an irreplaceable important resource for human survival and development.With the rapid development of China’s social economy and the large-scale increase of population,as well as the increasing problems such as the shortage of water resources and the deterioration of water environment,water resources have become an important restrictive factor for social sustainable development.Within the carrying capacity of water resources,how to improve the utilization efficiency of water resources and realize the optimization and upgrading of regional industrial structure is the focus of government agencies,experts and scholars.Pingdingshan City is one of the cities with serious water shortage in China.Adjusting and optimizing the industrial structure of Pingdingshan City,reducing water consumption and continuously improving the water efficiency of various industries are very important to realize the sustainable development of Pingdingshan City.Based on the relevant theories of water resources supply and demand balance,industrial sustainable development and Kuznets law,this paper first constructs the evaluation index system of water resources carrying capacity from the four criteria layers of society,economy,ecology and water resources,determines the index weight by using the entropy weight method,and analyzes the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of water resources carrying capacity in seven administrative regions of Pingdingshan City by constructing a comprehensive evaluation model.Secondly,based on the concept and connotation of industrial structure optimization,this paper analyzes the current situation and existing problems of Pingdingshan industrial structure from the perspective of industrial structure upgrading and rationalization.Thirdly,predict the supply and demand of water resources in Pingdingshan City in the future level years(2025 and 2035),comprehensively understand the future supply and demand of water resources in the study area,and identify the contradictions existing in the utilization of water resources in Pingdingshan City in the future.Finally,based on the prediction of water supply and demand,taking the maximum GDP,the minimum water consumption and the minimum total COD emission as the objective function,and selecting multiple indicators such as economic constraints,water resources and water supply constraints and environmental constraints as the constraint conditions,the multi-objective optimization model is constructed,the scheme is designed,and the optimal solution of the planning objective function of Pingdingshan City is solved by the interactive programming method.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The pressure index of the composite system of water resources carrying capacity in Pingdingshan City generally shows an upward trend,and the supporting capacity index shows a fluctuating downward trend.The overall water resources carrying capacity is on the verge of overload.From the perspective of spatial characteristics,the comprehensive evaluation index of water resources carrying capacity in Shilong District and urban area of Pingdingshan City in 2019 WCI>1.0 indicates that the water resources carrying capacity of this region is in a serious overload state.The comprehensive evaluation index of water resources carrying capacity in Lushan County,Jiaxian county and ye county is between 0.41<WCI<0.7,indicating that the water resources carrying capacity of this region is on the verge of overload,The comprehensive evaluation index of water resources carrying capacity in Baofeng county is 0.71<WCI<1.0,indicating that this area is in a state of slight overload.(2)Through the analysis of the evolution trend,rationalization and upgrading of industrial structure in Pingdingshan City,it can be seen that from 2013 to 2019,the evolution trend of industrial structure in Pingdingshan City is that the proportion of primary industry and secondary industry decreases year by year,and the proportion of tertiary industry increases gradually,which is in line with the law of industrial structure evolution.From the perspective of rationalization and upgrading,in 2019,the rationalization index of Pingdingshan City was the highest,followed by Lushan County and Wugang City,and there was little difference in the rationalization degree of industrial structure among the seven regions;There is a relatively high level of industrialization index between Baofeng county and Pingfeng County,with a relatively high level of industrialization index of 3707.59%,which is the lowest in the urban area of Baofeng city.(3)Taking 2019as the current level year,according to the prediction of regional development planning,the total water demand of Pingdingshan City in 2025 and 2035 is 1.125 billion m~3and 1.486 billion m~3respectively,the total water supply is only 1.103 billion m~3and 1.124 billion m~3,the water shortage of the whole city is 22million m~3and 362 million m~3respectively,and the water shortage rate is divided into 1.96%and 24.36%.Specifically,there is a serious shortage of water resources in Pingdingshan urban area and Shilong District,followed by Baofeng County,Wugang City and Jiaxian county.The shortage of water resources in Ye County and Lushan County is the smallest.The overall development of Pingdingshan City will be short of water in the future.(4)The maximum economic scale that Pingdingshan can carry in 2025 and 2035 is329.3 billion yuan and 5495.1 billion yuan respectively,and the upper limit of the population that Pingdingshan can carry is divided into 5.7338 million people and 6.0524 million people.Based on the economic scale and population scale that water resources can carry,and taking the prediction results of water supply and demand as the model entry,a multi-objective optimization model is constructed,and three different schemes are designed.After analysis and comparison,The second scheme with the goal of minimizing the total amount of COD emission is selected as the optimal scheme for the adjustment of industrial structure in Pingdingshan City. |
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