Research On Land Use Change And Prediction In Ningbo

Land use change has significant impacts on ecological environment,national spatial planning,and economic and social development.In today’s rapidly developing national economy,the tension between land resources,economic development,and ecological environment is increasingly evident.Studying the spatial distribution pattern of land use,exploring its driving mechanisms,and predicting future land use changes will help to understand the laws of land use change,provide theoretical support for national spatial planning,ecological environment protection,and economic development,thus easing the contradiction between humans and land,and promoting sustainable development of the socio-economy.Taking Ningbo City as the research area,this article first studies the characteristics of land use change using indicators such as land use dynamic degree,transfer matrix,land use development degree,and land use reduction rate.Secondly,the driving mechanisms of land use change are analyzed using geographic detector technology,including individual factor analysis and factor interaction analysis.Finally,the Markov-PLUS model is constructed,and the model’s accuracy is tested to predict the land use spatial pattern of Ningbo City in 2030 under different scenarios,and analyze scenario diversity.The main contents and conclusions of the study are as follows:(1)Characteristics of land use change in Ningbo City: From 2000 to 2020,there have been significant changes in land use in Ningbo City.The regions where land use types have changed are mainly the boundaries of the city,the junctions of different land use types,and port areas.The area of construction land continues to increase,while the area of forest and arable land continues to decrease,but the trend of their increase or decrease has slowed down significantly.Water,grassland,and unused land have a relatively small area,and their changes have a small impact on the overall land use spatial pattern.The degree of land use shows an upward trend,but the rate of increase has slowed down.(2)Driving forces of land use change in Ningbo City: The impact of driving factors on land use change in Ningbo City varies in different years.Generally speaking,DEM,slope,and soil have a strong impact on land use change in Ningbo City,while temperature,precipitation,population density,GDP,distance to the government seat,and distance to the expressway have a moderate impact.The distance to the primary road and the distance to the river have a weak impact on land use change in Ningbo City.After interaction between factors,they show a stronger impact on land use change.(3)Accuracy verification of the Markov-PLUS model: By comparing the actual land use spatial pattern of Ningbo City in 2020 with the simulated land use spatial pattern of Ningbo City in 2020,the overall accuracy of the simulation result is 0.90,the Kappa coefficient is 0.85,and the Fo M coefficient is 0.49.The results indicate that the simulation accuracy is relatively high.(4)Prediction of land use change under multiple scenarios in Ningbo City: The spatial pattern of land use in Ningbo City under the scenarios of natural development,urban development,and ecological protection is significantly different,but the area of construction land shows an increasing trend in all three scenarios.The hotspots of change in the three scenarios are in the eastern and northern regions of Ningbo City,with the most obvious changes in arable land areas and non-central urban areas.