A Study Of Simulation Of Urban Expantion Based On CA Markov Model

Urban is a complicated system,with the economy develops,the society progresses and the population increases,the demand of people for urban land will improve correspondingly.In order to meet the needs of society,the urban is gradually expanding,it is necessary to grasp the change of urban land use comprehensively and timely.For the problem of urban expansion,using the method of overlay analysis for the slope,the administrative center and the transportation land in this paper,we get the influence law of them on the urban land expansion,as well combines with statistical yearbook,the economic development law is got.Then,by comparing the Markov model and CA Markov model,the prediction results of Changchun City land use in 2010 is got,which demonstrate the CA_Markov model has a better effect of simulated.Finally,the CA_Markov model is used to simulate the land use situation of Changchun city in three models in 2020,which are the benchmark mode,the current mode and the cultivated land protection mode combine with the actual situation and the future development of Changchun City.The results show that:(1)The urban land mainly distributed in the slope that less than 25 degrees,the administrative center and the traffic land have an agglomeration effect on urban land,the closer the distance from the administrative center and the transportation land to urban land,the more suitable for its development of the urban.The faster increase of economy will promote the development of the urban,conversely,it will limit the development of the urban;(2)This paper from the overall,the quantity and the degree of space corresponding to verify the simulation accuracy of the CA_Markov model,the results of accuracy show that both the number corresponding and spatial location corresponding,the corresponding degree of urban land is above 87%,the simulation results is better;(3)The urban land still showed an increasing trend from 2010 to 2020,the benchmark mode that economy keep growing steadily(for example 2000-2010),the urban growth rate is faster,while the current mode that combine with the actual situation of the current economic downturn,its urban growth rate is slow.The predicted area of urban land under the the benchmark mode,the current mode and the cultivated land protection mode are 564.143km2,503.964km2 and 515.333km2.This paper simulates and forecasts the urban land use expansion of Changchun City from different angles,it can provide more references for the relevant departments in the future development planning of the urban.