Researches On Land-use Change Of Beiliu City Based On CA-Markov Model

Beiliu City is a county-level city with many people and few land.Under the guidance of various policies,the social economy develops rapidly.In order to meet its own development needs,land is needed as a space carrier.Therefore,it is helpful for the relevant departments of Beiliu City to formulate long-term and scientific development plan and realize regional sustainable development to make a thorough discussion on the current situation of land use and the complex dynamic evolution process and forecast its future development situation.Based on the remote sensing monitoring image data of Beiliu City in 2005,2010 and 2015,the original image of Beiliu City was preprocessed by using the spatial analysis method based on ArcGIS.According to the research needs,the land use types were recalssed,and some index methods which played a guiding role in the quantity and spatial change law of land use were selected,such as: such as land use structure,land use dynamics,land use transfer matrix and landscape pattern,quantitatively analyze the land use change in Beiliu City in the past 15 years.Selecting the elevation,slope,distance to the administrative center,the distance to the main traffic network,per capita GDP,population density and other elements that can cause land use change constitute the basic framework of the study of the driving force of Beiliu City,using Logistic regression analysis to explore the law of land use change in the region;In order to visually express the possibility of land use scenarios in the future,the CA-Markov model was constructed according to the regional characteristics of Beiliu City,and the land use scenarios of Beiliu City in 2025 were simulated on IDRISI software.Through analysis and research,the specific conclusions are as follows:(1)Forest is the most widely distributed type,and occupies the dominant position in all kinds of land use types;The annual average change in construction land is increased;The amount of cultivated land transferred is very large,and each land type has the supplement of cultivated land.;at the same time,the amount of construction land transfer is the largest,and the transfer from cultivated land,forest land,grassland and other land types.The degree of fragmentation of land use landscape pattern is increasing,and it has not developed towards the direction of centralized links.However,landscape diversity has been greatly improved in the study area and has been better renewed in the landscape types.(2)Elevation,slope,distance to administrative center,distance to main traffic network,per capita GDP,population density and so on are factors influencing land use change in Beiliu City.The cultivated land is greatly influenced by natural factors and location factors;the grassland is more likely to appear in areas with larger slopes,higher elevations,smaller population density and per capita GDP;the water area is mainly distributed in areas far from the main roads and with slower slopes;the population density and per capita GDP have a positive impact on the construction land.(3)The 2015 actual land use data of Beiliu City,which was interpreted by remote sensing,is compared with the 2015 Beiliu City land use forecast obtained by CA-Markov model simulation.The results show that the numerical simulation basically reaches 90% and the Kappa coefficient is 84.62%.The prediction results meet the research needs,and the model can be used for further research.(4)Using CA-Markov model to predict the land use pattern of the study area in 2025.Under the natural development mode,the growing construction land in Beiliu City mainly concentrates in the Northwest region.Because the construction land occupies a large number of cultivated land,the cultivated land in the study area shows a trend of substantial reduction,and the important ecological land such as water area is not specially protected,the contradiction between human and geographical environment gradually emerges,which poses a certain threat to the ecological security of Beiliu City.Under the ecological protection mode,environmentally friendly policies such as not occupying basic farmland and water area that are not converted into other types of land use are set up,which relieves the pressure of cultivated land protection to a certain extent and is conducive to regional sustainable development.(5)Analysis of scenario simulation results to provide targeted advice for the scientific management of land resources in Beiliu City: to strengthen the basic role of spatial planning and overall layout of urban development;to carry out comprehensive land consolidation projects in the whole region,to integrate green and ecological concepts into the comprehensive land consolidation design,and to implement the balance system of land occupation and compensation,so as not to reduce the quantity and quality of cultivated land;Accelerate the pilot construction of the reform of collective operating construction land into the market,form a mature system that can be popularized,vigorously implement the project of linking the increase and decrease of urban and rural construction land,promote the project of urban and rural inefficient land redevelopment,optimize the residential environment of local people,realize the coordinated development of the region,let urban and rural residents share the reform dividend,constructing the " Production& Living&Ecological " Space with the Characteristics of Beiliu City.