Research On Driving Mechanism And Monitoring And Early Warning Of Geological Environment Carrying Capacity In Dongning-Suifenhe Area

With the rapid development of China's social economy,the fragile ecological environment and the shortage of resources are facing greater pressure.As a criterion for measuring the degree of coordination between geological environment and human activities,geological environment carrying capacity is given richer meaning and higher requirements in the new situation.It is necessary not only to evaluate the geological environment carrying capacity,but also to establish long-term monitoring and early warning mechanism.From the current research on the geological environment carrying capacity at home and abroad,the evaluation research mainly includes the establishment of index system,the selection of evaluation methods,the optimization of evaluation model and the application of evaluation results.The research on the driving effect of evaluation index to geological environment carrying capacity is weak.The early warning research on geological environment carrying capacity is in its infancy,and the limited research examples are mainly for the present warning of carrying capacity.There are few reports on the trend warning of carrying capacity.With the in-depth development of the“One Belt and Road”,the Dongning-Suifenhe region has ushered in a new opportunity for development.How to ensure the socio-economic development while coordinating the relationship between geological environment,resource development,and ecological environmental protection has become the key to the success of opening up and opening up.Facing urgent needs,it is imperative to carry out geological environment carrying capacity evaluation and monitoring and early warning research.Therefore,it is of great theoretical significance and applied value to study the driving mechanism and trend warning of geological environment carrying capacity.Based on the geological survey project“Comprehensive Survey of Geological Environment in Dongning-Suifenhe Area of Sino-Russian Economic Corridor”,the Dongning-Suifenhe Area is the research area.On the basis of combing requirements to the area,the geological environment carrying capacity evaluation index system was constructed reasonably,and the geological environment carrying capacity background and state evaluation,the driving mechanism of the evaluation index,the background and the trend warning research were carried out mainly by means of hierarchical comprehensive index method,spatial principal component analysis method and linear space change method.The functional zones of geological environment were divided for regional management and comprehensive regulation.The suggestions for regional development and ecological environmental protection are put forward.Specific achievements have been made in the following aspects:1.The background geological environment carrying capacity is mainly divided into five grades.The high carrying capacity zones are distributed in the east,northeast and south,with better development potential.The higher zones are the north,central and southeast,with good development potential.The medium zone is a nearly circular area in the middle,with moderate development potential.The low and the lower carrying capacity zones are concentrated in the core of the middle zone,and the development potential is poor.The status geological environment carrying capacity is mainly divided into three levels.The development and transformation degree of human activities in the surplus zones is low,accounting for 87.19%area;the equilibrium zones are in the eastern and central areas for 11.03%area,and it is necessary to prevent overloading;The overload zones are concentrated in Suifenhe-Funing,Dongning and Dongning coal mine-Shimenzi for 1.78%area,it is requiring key monitoring and early warning.2.The main component of X₁ with larger degree to background geological environment carrying capacity is in the north and south areas.The higher zones of X₂are Jinchang-Suiyang-Nantianmen forest farm,Laoheishan-Sanjiezi-Nuanquan forest farm and Sanchakou-Naozhigou-Daohe;X₃ higher zones are Suiyang,Sanchakou-Daduchuan-Naozhigou and Sanjielazi;X₄ higher zones are the most of Suifenhe-Funing-Suiyang-Jinchang,Sanchakou-Dongning-Daohe and Daduchuan-Shimenzi.The background geological environment bearing capacity,primary industry and population all have positive driving effect on the evolution of the status geological environment carrying capacity.The areas with higher background bearing capacity are mainly in Dongning,Suifenhe urban area,Sanchakou and Suiyang town.The areas with a high degree of primary industry are distributed in Dongning,Sanchakou,Datuchuan and its periphery and Suiyang town.The regions with a higher degree of population effect are mainly Dongning,Suifenhe urban area,Suiyang,Sanchakou,Datuchuan and Laoheishan towns.3.The warning results of status geological environment carrying capacity show that the non-police zone is the most widely distributed,accounting for 73.97%of the total area.The light police zones are the main villages and parts of the mining areas,accounting for 13.35%area.The central police zones are densely populated areas and major townships,accounting for 9.98%area.The heavy police zones are the main urban areas of Suifenhe,Sanchakou-Daduchuan coal mining areas,accounting for2.54%.The extremely heavy police zone is the main urban of Dongning.The distribution patterns of different geological environment carrying capacity early warning levels in 2025 and 2030 are similar to those in 2016.The area where no police officers deteriorated is beihan country-nantianmen forest farm;the area of deterioration light police are the expansion of the main townships and part of the mining areas;the zone with middle police deterioration are in the peripheral planning areas of the main city;the red heavy police areas are located in Suifenhe and Dongning main districts.4.The geological environment optimization development zones are the main urban areas of Dongning and Suifenhe.The key development zones are mainly Suifenhe-Fuining-Beihan,Nantianmen-Dongning-Sanchakou-Daduchuan and major townships.The agricultural areas restricted to development are mainly distributed in the peripheral areas of towns and villages.The ecological zone that restricts development is the most widely distributed and has high ecological function value.The prohibited development zones are mainly Suifenhe national forest park,Dongting canyon scenic area and Dongning fortress ruins.