Research On The Coupling System Of Society,Ecoenvironment And Water In Tarim River Basin

Since entering the anthropocene,human beings have become the strong power which affects the evolution of biology,resources and the environment on a global scale.Human society and the ecological environment are closely linked as social ecosystem.The contemporary study on hydrology and water resources has introduced systems theory,and proposed the viewpoint that it is necessary to study the coupling evolution process and internal mutual relationship between human and water,human and ecological environment,water and ecological environment from the perspective of the overall system.This idea regards society,the ecoenvironment and water resources as internal factors of a whole organic system,rather than the society as an external factor that affects the hydrological system and the ecoenvironment system.It has evolved into a new interdisciplinary subject-socio-hydrology.Exploring the coupled relationship of "human-water-environment" to realize the harmonious development of social economy,ecoenvironment and water resources is one of the main research contents of socio-hydrology,and is also the ultimate task in the theory and practice of "Natural-Social" binary water cycle.To study the coupling of"society-ecoenvironment-water resources" has enriched the research content of social hydrology and binary water cycle,and is of great significance to the construction of ecological civilization and the ecological and water security of a river basin.This paper systemticly proposed the coupled evolution theory of society-ecoenvironment-water system,and constructed a coupled evolutionary framework from the aspects of evolution mechanism,flux change and future prediction.Setting the Tarim River Basin as study area,this research revealed the evolutionary process and driving factors of the society-ecoenvironment-water system using the "pendulum model" from the perspective of historical social hydrology.Combining the coupling degree model with the Granger causal analysis model to explore the coupling degree and internal driving mechanism of the society-ecoenvironment-water system,the results showed that water was one of the direct factors both driving the development of social economic systems,and causing the deterioration of the ecological environment system.Therefore,water footprint and input-output model were introduced to analyze the process,structure and flux of water utility in the basin.The results showed that the water consumption of the Tarim River Basin has doubled in the past 15 years.Agriculture and animal husbandry were the absolute mainstay of water resources consumption in the basin.From the perspective of the trading water cycle,the Tarim River Basin was a net output area of virtual water,and the output accounted for 55%of the local water consumption.Excessive consumption of water resources in the social system did cause the deterioration of the natural ecological environment of the basin and we concluded that the rise of an artificial oasis may cause the extinction of two or three natural oases,on the exploration of quantitative relationship between water footprint and ecological footprint as well as the water consumption in artificial and natural oasis.Based collaborative development model of society-ecoenvironment-water system consctructed on on the system dynamics theory,and considering the impact of national-level local policies on the socio-economic,this paper simulated the development of socio-econimy,ecoenvironment,and water utilization in the Tarim River Basin in the next 30 years.It showed that by 2303,the population would increase by 800,000 the industrial structure would be optimized and adjusted,the eco-environment carrying capacity would be improved year by year,the utilization of water resources would be decreased,which indicated socio-economy,ecoenvironment and water resources was moving towards a harmonious situation.From 2030 to 2050,industrial water consumption increased sharply,and the supply and demand of local water resources in the basin showed a gap of 6 billion m3 due to the development of industry.Therefore,this study suggested that with permission of national and local policies,water conveyance from water-rich river basin was the fundamental way to solve the water resources pressure and environmental stress dilemma in the basin,and achieved coordinated development of the society-ecoenvironment-water resources system.