| At present,the research on water resources spatial equilibrium at home and abroad is still in its infancy,and there is still a lack of complete theoretical guidance system for the construction of water resources spatial equilibrium evaluation index system and evaluation model.In order to further quantitatively analyze the complex uncertainty and change characteristics of regional water resources spatial equilibrium system,starting from the concept of water resources spatial equilibrium,this paper believes that water resources spatial equilibrium is a state of coordination between water resources development and supply.Therefore,the regional water resources spatial equilibrium system is divided into two subsystems: supply side and demand side of water resources spatial equilibrium,and the evaluation index and grade standard system are constructed.Then,the spatial equilibrium index theory is introduced,the set pair analysis connection number is improved,and the connection number difference coordination degree coupling model is constructed.The above model system is applied to the example of water resources spatial equilibrium state in Anhui Province from 2009 to 2018 to carry out empirical application research,At the same time,in order to verify the reliability of the model and improve the evaluation results,this paper also introduces the connection number Gini coefficient coupling spatial equilibrium evaluation model for comparison.The key influencing factors affecting the change of spatial equilibrium situation of water resources in different cities are diagnosed and identified by using the set pair potential method of five element and half partial subtraction.Overall,the main research results of the paper are as follows:(1)The effective quantitative evaluation of the supply and demand subsystem is made by using the connection number method.At the same time,the degree of difference and coordination between the two systems are evaluated by using the two methods of equilibrium coordination degree and equilibrium difference degree,and the final spatial equilibrium evaluation index is obtained by using the weighted comprehensive operation,The spatial equilibrium evaluation model of regional water resources based on the connection number spatial equilibrium index constructed through the above steps is applied to the spatial equilibrium evaluation of water resources in Anhui Province from 2009 to 2018.The results show that:(1)the north and south of Anhui Province fall into different situations of imbalance.Except that Lu’an(0.81)in central Anhui reached the state of relative spatial equilibrium and Anqing(0.78)was close to the state of relative spatial equilibrium,Hefei(0.53)in northern and central Anhui fell into the state of moderate spatial imbalance of water shortage,Chuzhou in central Anhui and Ma’anshan,Wuhu and Tongling in Southern Anhui fell into the state of slight imbalance of water shortage,while Xuancheng,Chizhou and Tongling in southern Anhui fell into the state of slight imbalance of surplus.(2)The difference evaluation of Hefei is lower than that of Northern Anhui,but the coordination evaluation is better than that of Northern Anhui,and the supply side evaluation value of Hefei is also better than that of Northern Anhui,indicating that the further development of demand side indicators may be affected by long-term supply side constraints in Northern Anhui,so it is urgent to improve the situation of water transfer.(2)Through the coupling of Gini coefficient and Lorentz curve,an effective method to measure resource allocation,and the connection number method,the defect that the Gini coefficient calculation itself can only reflect the overall situation can be overcome,and the equilibrium situation of each region can be effectively reflected.Therefore,a regional water resources spatial equilibrium evaluation model coupled with the connection number and Gini coefficient is constructed.The application results show that the matching state of water resources in Northern Anhui is generally in a state of severe imbalance,and the calculated values are below-0.2.The per capita share of water resources does not match its economic development.The value of Hefei in central Anhui is-0.438,which is lower than that of Huaibei(-0.403),the lowest of the six cities in Northern Anhui,indicating that the separation between its water resources and economic development is more serious.However,Lu’an(0.454)and Anqing(0.439)are in a better balance level(relative equilibrium).In southern Anhui,Ma’anshan(0.136)and Tongling(0.151)are in a moderate imbalance state,while Wuhu(0.29)is in a slight imbalance state,which is quite different from the high-quality equilibrium state of the three cities in southern Anhui-Xuancheng(0.568),Chizhou(0.58)and Huangshan(0.665).The evaluation results of spatial equilibrium of water resources in cities in Anhui Province from 2009 to 2018 calculated by the above model are basically consistent with the trend of the connection number equilibrium coordination degree coupling model,but there are differences in the judgment of Southern Anhui.Under the comprehensive comparison,it is proved that the model in(1)is more scientific and comprehensive.At the same time,the above two methods evaluate the water resources situation of cities in Anhui Province from the perspectives of coordination,difference and distribution uniformity,which makes the evaluation results rich and perfect.(3)The main influencing factors affecting the spatial balanced comprehensive development level of water resources in Anhui Province in 2018 are diagnosed and identified by using the set pair potential method of five yuan and a semipartial subtraction set pair potential.The results show that the per capita water resources,vegetation coverage,population density,water consumption of 10000 yuan GDP and water consumption of 10000 yuan industrial added value are the main reasons for the different comprehensive development levels of water resources supply and demand in different regions and cities of Anhui Province,That is,the main factors of the change of spatial equilibrium;In the average analysis over the years,on the supply side,Northern Anhui,including Hefei and Chuzhou in central Anhui,is in the reverse trend,Lu’an and Anqing are in the balance,Ma’anshan,Wuhu and Tongling in southern Anhui are in the reverse trend,and Xuancheng,Chizhou and Tongling are in the positive trend;In the north of Anhui,Fuzhou and Bengbu are on the opposite side of Huaihe and Suyang;Hefei and Lu’an in central Anhui are in balance,while Chuzhou and Anqing are in reverse;Ma’anshan in southern Anhui is in a positive trend,Wuhu and Tongling are in balance,while Xuancheng,Chizhou and Huangshan are in a negative trend.To sum up,the improvement of the coupling coefficient coupling coordination degree model in this paper has achieved good results,the evaluation standard of five element connection number is more refined,the introduced difference operation can judge the type of imbalance,and the combination with the set pair potential of five element semi partial subtraction makes the identification of vulnerability indicators clearer and accurate,which has been deepened on the basis of predecessors. |
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