Study On Cold Chain Logistics Demand Forecast And Logistics Path Of Fresh Agricultural Products In Chongqing

In recent years,Under the context of the favorable national policies,efficient logistics industry regulation,increasingly demand-oriented industry growth,the cold chain logistics industry is eager to improve its underdeveloped areas,and various market entities have actively invested in the construction of cold chain logistics.The logistics market is growing steadily and rapidly and the surge in demand pushes cold chain logistics to the forefront.Cold chain logistics has become a new "blue ocean" consequently(a potential market).However,As a beginner with weak infrastructure,cold chain logistics in China is far behind that in developed countries.On a whole,cold chain logistics development can't meet the supply need.Based on this,this article takes the cold chain logistics of fresh agricultural products in Chongqing as the research object,and focuses on the demand forecast of cold chain logistics in Chongqing and the optimization of logistics distribution network,thus contributing to improve the quality of cold chain logistics service and providing theoretical value and practical guidance for the development of cold chain logistics industry of fresh agricultural products.Combined with literature research methods,Grey-Markov model,ant colony algorithm and case analysis methods,focusing on the forecast demand and changing rules of Chongqing's fresh agricultural products cold chain logistics,this article is designed to optimize the logistics cost structure with the green and low-carbon goal orientation,and establish the objective function model and find a best solution for minimizing the total cost of the cold chain logistics distribution path of fresh agricultural products.Firstly,This paper are dedicated to analyze the demand of cold chain logistics in Chongqing and establish the gray GM(1,1)model and the improved gray GM(1,1)model with Markov chain modification respectively to quantitatively predict the demand of cold chain logistics of fresh agricultural products in Chongqing based on the panel data of main fresh agricultural products production and sales in recent years.According to the demand forecast,the cold chain logistics distribution path optimization model of fresh agricultural products was established.In order to achieve the goal of cost reduction and efficiency improvement,an optimization model was established to minimize the vehicle distribution cost and decrease carbon emission cost,fuel consumption cost,refrigeration cost and penalty cost for violating the time window on the total cost.Finally,the ant colony algorithm of heuristic algorithm is a good choice to use the basic ant colony algorithm and the improved ant colony algorithm to figure out and make a competitive total cost of cold chain logistics distribution of fresh agricultural products.The research results show that the total cost of the logistics distribution made by the improved ant colony algorithm was more favorable than that made by basic ant colony algorithm which verifies the correctness of the model construction and the feasibility of the algorithm design.It is scientific and reasonable to predict the cold chain logistics demand of fresh agricultural products in Chongqing,and build its logistics distribution route optimization model and algorithm design on this basis.