Research On Cold Chain Logistics Demand Forecast

In 2020,the COVID-19 broke out all over the world,and cold chain logistics was hit unprecedentedly.Nucleic acid was detected positive in products transported by cold chain successively.Faced with the rampant epidemic,cold chain logistics bravely shoulder the heavy responsibility of the times,transforming into a reverse walker in the storm,becoming the backbone of transporting medical supplies and fresh agricultural products,demonstrating its important significance in the national economy and people’s livelihood.In the new context of comprehensive economic recovery,it has become an indispensable way to obtain food and its importance has become increasingly prominent.How to reasonably predict logistics demand,guide enterprises to respond to new development patterns under the premise of supply and demand balance,and achieve industry transformation and upgrading will become an important topic for logistics enterprises to consider.This article starts from the perspective of cold chain logistics,predicts market demand for the next six years,and puts forward reasonable suggestions for the construction of cold chain logistics in Shanxi Province.This article takes the prediction of cold chain logistics demand as the starting point,sorts out existing literature,combines the current development status of cold chain logistics in Shanxi Province,and selects fresh agricultural products to study the cold chain logistics in Shanxi Province.Firstly,12 impact indicators on the cold chain logistics demand of fresh agricultural products in Shanxi Province were selected for the construction of the indicator system.The grey correlation method was used to analyze the degree of correlation between each factor and the cold chain logistics demand of fresh agricultural products,and the four key indicators with the highest correlation were extracted to predict the cold chain logistics demand of fresh agricultural products in Shanxi Province from 2022 to 2027.Adding health emergencies and population aging as influencing factors to the analysis of cold chain logistics of fresh agricultural products in Shanxi Province has enriched the construction of the prediction index system.In order to reduce the prediction error of a single model,this paper has successively used principal component regression prediction,multivariable grey prediction,improved grey neural network prediction,and based on Shapley’s value to predict the value of cold chain logistics demand of fresh agricultural products in Shanxi Province in the next six years.After comparing the prediction errors of the model,it was found that the combined prediction error was relatively small,which also proves the superiority of the combined prediction model.The maximum error of the grey prediction model is 27.17,and the minimum error of the combined model is 13.62.The prediction results indicate that the demand for commercialization of fresh agricultural products in Shanxi Province will continue to grow from 2022 to 2027.From the perspectives of the gross domestic product of the tertiary industry,total retail sales of consumer goods,total production of fresh agricultural products,and freight volume,constructive suggestions are proposed for the development of cold chain logistics in Shanxi Province.