A Study On The Perception And Adaptation Behavior Of Farmers In Dry Farming Areas In Northern Shaanxi

Climate change has a serious impact on the agricultural development in the dry farming area.Most of the agriculture in the Loess Plateau in Northern Shaanxi is dry agriculture,which is extremely dependent on the climate conditions.As the main body of agricultural industry,the farmers' perception of climate change and the choice of adaptation measures directly affect the agricultural output in the region.Therefore,it is of great significance to grasp the farmers' perception and adaptation to climate change accurately,to formulate scientific adaptive policies,to ensure the healthy and sustainable development of agricultural industry in dry farming areas and to promote rural revitalization.Based on the full investigation and interview of farmers in the dry farming area of Northern Shaanxi Province,this study compares the scientific observation data with the classification data of the results of farmers' climate change perception,measures the accuracy of farmers' perception of climate change,and explores the relationship between perception and gas image data and the factors affecting the accuracy of perception by using binary logistic regression.Meanwhile,the multi linear regression was adopted to explore the micro factors that affect the farmers'adaptive behavior selection.The paper also calculates the weight of livelihood capital and climate risk perception index by using entropy method.From four perspectives of farmers' livelihood capital,climate risk significance,climate change perception and climate risk perception,the paper takes path analysis to analyze the macro mechanism that affects farmers' climate change adaptation behavior.The results show that:(1)The annual average temperature of dry farming area in Northern Shaanxi Province increased slowly from 1990 to 2019,and the annual average temperature distribution was significantly different from east to west.The temperature increase rate in the western region is faster,while the eastern region is slow.The average temperature of four seasons is rising to different degrees,and the order of seasonal temperature is from big to small to summer,spring,autumn and winter,while the order of growth is spring,autumn,winter and summer from big to small.The annual precipitation shows a significant upward trend,and the annual average precipitation shows a gradient difference between the East and the west,while the precipitation increase rate in the western region is lower than that in the eastern and northern regions.The precipitation in spring is decreasing,and the precipitation in summer,autumn and winter is rising.The order of seasonal precipitation is from big to small to summer,autumn,spring and winter,and the order of growth is autumn,summer,spring and winter in order from big to small.(2)The most farmers' perception of temperature change in 17 counties and districts in the survey area except Yanchang is consistent with the meteorological data,but the results of the sensing and measurement of precipitation are inconsistent among all the county and District farmers.The positive effect of age on the perception of temperature change is positive.The farmers who grow corn crops can more accurately perceive the rise of temperature.The effect of Apple planting on the farmers' accurate perception of temperature change is significant and has a negative correlation.Farmers who believe that the global temperature is rising gradually also believe that the local temperature is rising.Compared with women,men are more likely to perceive the trend of precipitation accurately.The longer the local residence time,the easier it is to sense that precipitation is decreasing.The family size also has a significant negative impact on the perception of precipitation change.The more likely the households with global temperature rise think that the precipitation is decreasing,and the farmers engaged in Apple planting can accurately perceive that the precipitation is increasing.(3)Farmers tend to increase pesticide use,adopt soil moisture conservation technology,increase non-agricultural income,increase the coverage area of the film,work outside,change the planting structure and increase the irrigation times to eliminate the impact of climate change on livelihoods,but less on the two adaptation behaviors of migration and insurance.The diversity index of adaptive behavior of farmers in Yulin is higher than that of counties and districts in Yan'an.The factors that influence the intensification adaptation are the degree of culture,the time of local residence,the income of family agriculture,the income of non-agricultural family,the distance from the village to the township;the factors that have a significant impact on the change adaptation are the cultural level,the local residence time,the number of family labor force,the family non-agricultural income,the cultivated land area and the number of people who can borrow;the factors that have the number of labor force,household non-agricultural income,distance from village to town and the number of borrowers have significant influence on diversification adaptation;local residence time,number of family labor force,cultivated land area and number of borrowers have significant influence on the migration adaptation.(4)The significance of climate risk has a positive and significant impact on the climate risk perception and intensification adaptation,and it has a positive impact on intensification adaptation,change adaptation and diversification adaptation through climate risk perception.The migration adaptation is negatively affected by the significant climate risk.Livelihood capital has a positive and direct impact on the significance of climate risk,and it has a positive impact on intensification,change and diversification adaptation through climate risk perception.But the climate risk perception is negatively affected by climate change perception.