Research On Farmers' Perception And Adaptation Behavior To Climate Change In The Loess Hilly And Gully Area Of ??Northern Shaanxi

Climate change has a serious impact on agricultural production,especially the agricultural production in the hill and gully region of the Loess Plateau in northern Shaanxi,which is the dry farming region,the fragile area of ecological environment and the farming-pastoral ecotone.The farmers who are vulnerable groups of climate change and the subject of agricultural production are facing severe challenges.It is significant to have a better understanding of farmers' perception of and adaptation to climate change for formulating appropriate adaptation policies,promoting sustainable agricultural development in the fragile area of ecological environment and helping farmers to get rid of poverty.Based on the meteorological data and survey data,with binary logistic,multiple linear regression analysis and GIS technology,we discussed the following contents:the temporal and spatial variation of climatic factors(temperature and precipitation)in the hill and gully region of the Loess Plateau during 1986-2016,the spatial distribution of farmers' perceptions of climate change and its impact,farmers'adaptive behaviors,features of farmers' assessments of adaptive behaviors' efficacy,and significant factors influencing farmers adopting adaptive behaviors and those assessments.The main conclusions were as follows:(1)In the annual scale,the annual mean temperature and precipitation presented an increasing trend in the study area during 1986-2016.The annual mean temperature was high and multi-year average precipitation was more in southern counties,but the temperature and precipitation tendency rate was slow,which was contrary to northern counties.With low annual mean temperature and less annual mean precipitation,the temperature and precipitation tendency rate was also slow in Dingbian and Jingbian County.(2)In the quarter scale,the seasonal temperature showed an increasing trend during 1986-2016 with the rate of 0.50?/10a,0.22?/10a,0.29?/10a and 0.17?/10a respectively.The precipitation of spring and summer displayed a decreasing trend.The precipitation of autumn and winter showed an increasing trend.In space,seasonal temperature was high and seasonal precipitation was more in southeast counties.The summer temperature was low and summer precipitation was less in western counties.The seasonal warming rates were fast in northern counties,but only the warming rate of autumn was fast in southern counties.The summer precipitation in northern counties and spring precipitation in southern counties showed an increasing trend.(3)Farmers' perception of local temperature change was consistent with the reality as a whole.However,farmers' perception of specific temperature trend in most counties was not entirely accurate,and most farmers' perception of precipitation change was not consistent with the reality.Many farmers perceived that climate change was unfavorable to agricultural production,such as increased diseases and pests,reduced crop yield but most of them did not change the planting and harvesting time,which was passive in response to climate change.Influenced by climate change,resource conditions and socio-economic factors,farmers'perception of climate change and its effects showed spatial heterogeneity.Perceived intensity of climate change and whether the perception was correct or not might affect farmers' production behavior and cause a series of eco-environmental problems.(4)Farmers tended to adopt those measures with less investment,low risks but quick efficiency,such as the technology of containing soil moisture,focusing on weather forecast,applying more pesticides,but seldom adopted other adaptive measures with low assessment of adaptation efficacy and making full use of potential benefits of climate change.Compared with Yulin city,the assessment of adaptation efficacy was lower in Yan'an city,especially in Qingjian,Yanchuan,Yanchang and Yan'an counties,where farmers' adaptation was passive.The government ought to find out the difficulties in agricultural production and improve their initiative to adapt to climate change.(5)Among perception factors affecting farmers' adaptive behaviors,farmers were more likely to take measures when they perceived changes in crop nutrition and occurrence of natural disasters in the past five years.The probability of farmers taking measures was higher when the agricultural production was affected by climate change at different levels;or when they perceived higher summer temperature.Farmers,in contrast,were less likely to adopt adaptation measures when they suffered more diseases and pests.Among socio-economic and location factors affecting farmers'adaptive behaviors,farmers were more likely to take measures when they have more kinds of crops and more agricultural income.On the contrgary,they were less likely to take measures when they were older and located at a higher elevation.Among information and nature factors,farmers who obtained information from the media,relatives and friends,and local government were more likely to take measures.When farmers encountered less precipitation in the past 10 years,they were more likely to take measures.(6)Farmers had a higher evaluation of adaptation efficacy when they had more non-farming income,more farmland and more people who could borrow money.Encountering more diseases and pests caused by climate change,taking longer time to get to town and obtaining adaptation information from the media,similarly,farmers had a higher evaluation of adaptation efficacy.However,farmers' evaluation of adaptation efficacy is lower when they had more farming income;or when they perceived more precipitation,delayed planting time and the change of agricultural proverb.When farmers encountered more annual precipitation and summer precipitation from 2007 to 2016,more annual precipitation and winter precipitation from 1997 to 2016,and more annual precipitation and summer precipitation from 1987 to 2016,they also had a lower evaluation of adaptation efficacy.