| The influence of Climate change are irreversible and persistence,and with the progress of the climate change research,adaptation is considered to wise human response to climate change after prevention,prevent and slow.Perception of climate change is the foundation to adaptation,and it’s also an effective way to reveal the mechanism of perception and adaptation.Therefore,the perception and adaptation of climate change research isn’t only become one of the most active research fields in the current academia,but also is the important concerns of carrying out the sustainable development strategy for government and related departments.The region of climate change research are focused on the natural transition zone and ecological fragile area,Which including patterns,climate transition zone and mountain and so on.As a typical representative of coastal in north China and the strongest mid-latitude regions of oceanic climate,Jiaozhou Bay area is likely to face greater risks of climate change in future with the effects of climate change and human activities.Therefore,this article taking the Jiaozhou bay area as the research object,basing on the analysis framework of "perception-adaptation",combining with the data of questionnaire,meteorological and statistical yearbook,using some methods which including the M-K inspection and wavelet analysis to analyze the characteristics of climate change in Jiaozhou Bay area;using descriptive statistics,the degree of agreement,the relative intensity of perception and the correlation coefficient methods to study the perception and adaptation of climate change;Finally,analyzing the influence of perception and adaptation with the Ordered Probit,Bivariate Probit and Poisson regression model.Main conclusions are as follows:(1)Nearly 30 years,the characteristics of climate change is warming and wetting in Jiaozhou Bay area.Under the background of global climate change,the trend of warming is obvious,and this warming trend present the east high and west low spatial distribution with the influence of heat island effect;relative to the temperature,the trend of precipitation is smaller,but the fluctuation is obvious,especially in summer and annual precipitation,regional precipitation were increased.The mutability of temperature and precipitation is obvious,especially in temperature,and the mutation time is 1989 and 1998 in respectively;there are two obvious cycle(6a and 12a)in precipitation.Extreme climate events became more intensive,drought and flood occurred alternately,and the trend of high temperature days and heavy rain days are increasing,and the volatility is larger,especially since the year of 2000.(2)The accuracy of residents perception to temperature related factors are more higher than precipitation related factors,that is the perception of temperature,drought and high temperature are fit with the facts,the perception of precipitation and heavy rain are inconsistent with the facts.The result revels that according to the actual situation,residents perception to extreme climate events is similar,but no matter in frequency and on type,residents’ memories of extreme climate events are significantly less than the actual occurrence of it;with the influence of time series,residents’ memory to extreme climate events is more profound and accurate in nearly 5 years.The degree of consistency to different climate elements isn’t same and also isn’t high with the facts,in addition to the medium consistency of heavy rains,the others are all low consistency.Influenced by individual characteristics,such as gender,age,educational background and professional,the relative strength of perception of climate elements and extreme climate events are different.(3)The perception of climate change and adaptation to climate change are asymmetrical,despite 84.5% of residents know climate change,and 91.5% of the residents feeling the influence on income,health and ways of making a living which result from climate change,however,there are only 58.5% of residents taking adaptation measures.The residents who take the adaptation measures have numerous autonomous adaptation measures,but it is basically belongs to the passive adaptation,which can’t meet the needs of adaptation to climate change.Therefore,the diversification and application proportion of adaptation measures still have room to improve.(4)The acceptance level of education,information,job characteristics and economic level are the main factors of adaptation.The residents’ perception of temperature and precipitation is positive to adaptation,which show that perception have directly affect on adaption;because of sudden and difficult characteristics of extreme climate events,its present a negative relationship between perception and adaptation,especially in the perception and adaptation of drought.(5)The factors which influencing residents’ perception and adaptation are complex and varied,including four aspects,such as individual,family,cognitive and environmental characteristics,and the specific effects of them are different.The frequency of external contact,family size,planting,planted or breeding area,the influence perception,the loss of disaster and water availability are the main factors which influencing the residents’ perception of climate change;Access to information,the perception of precipitation and economic loss,annual rainfall are the main factors which influencing the residents’ adaptation to climate change. |
