Study On The Impact Of Population Aging To Industrial Structure Upgrate

With the development of society and economy,the degree of China's population aging is becoming more and more serious.According to the forecast of various international organizations,China's population aging degree will worsen in the future.Population is an important factor to social and economic development.Changing of population age structure have far-reaching influence on all aspects of the economy.Chinese traditional industrial structure is not only faced with the serious constraints on resources and environment,and an aging population brings the rising cost of labor force elements,is based on cheap labor to China pose significant challenges the traditional comparative advantage,the urgent need for transformation of the pattern of economic development in China,looking for a new industry growth point.First,briefly introduced the situation of the world's population aging of the population,then compared the current situation of China's aging population,draw the characteristics of China's aging population.Based on the historical trend of the world's major countries and China's own experience,discovered the relationship between population aging and upgrade of industrial structure is a strong positive correlation.Secondly,using the mathematical model and equilibrium analysis,through the establishment of reasonable assumption,found that an aging population not conducive to the development of the second industry,is conducive to the further development of the third industry,then draws the conclusion of an aging population is conducive to the overall industrial structure upgrade.Thirdly,we use Chinese provincial data from 1993 to 2014,construct the upgrading of industrial structure of multidimensional indexes and the empirical analysis.We found the conclusion:(1)Control the child dependency ratio and nationalization,urbanization rate,the government behavior,human capital,R&D intensity,fiscal decentralization,financial development and opening to the outside world and a series of variable conditions,found an aging population as a whole to promote the upgrading of industrial structure.(2)We found that an aging population impact on industrial structure upgrade has a threshold effect.When the lower level of population aging,the bigger role on the upgrading of industrial structure,but when an aging population reaches a certain degree,its role in promoting industrial structure upgrade tends to weaken.(3)Between an aging population not only promoted the industry structure upgrade,but also promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure inside.On the concrete,an aging population will pass reversed transmission enterprises to replace labor with capital,technology,promote the development of the secondary industry and high technology industries and the tertiary industry in the development of producer services.(4)In the study areas,found the aging of population industry structure upgrade there is a big difference between the area,the influence of relative to the eastern region,the aging of population in the central and western regions upgrade of industrial structure effect is more obvious;Points and the degree of aging population in the study,found that regions with high relative to the aging,low aging regional industrial structure upgrade effect more apparent.Finally,based on the above research conclusion,an important policy implications of this article is the trend of population aging,use of an aging population effect to upgrade the industrial structure,develop the aging industry,promote the development of the third industry,to achieve the overall optimization and upgrading of industrial structure.