| Over the past forty years,although China’s real economy has achieved tremendous achievements,the negative effects of aging on China’s economic development have gradually become apparent since China entered an aging population society.The report of the 20 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China clearly points out the need to further promote high-quality economic development.In the increasingly severe aging problem and high-quality economic development environment,Yunnan Province is in a critical period of industrial structure transformation and upgrading.Yunnan Province is rich in natural resources,with a wide area and large diversity and small clusters of settlement.Therefore,the aging population has a wide impact on the economic development and industrial structure of Yunnan Province.First,with the deepening of aging,the average age of the labor force will continue to grow,and the demographic dividend will continue to pass,which will affect labor productivity and hinder the upgrading of the industrial structure.At the same time,aging will also provide new growth points for China’s economic development.The elderly will have more needs for health care and elderly care,which will bring new sources of development to the development of the tertiary industry.Therefore,the aging population presents both opportunities and challenges.Studying the impact of aging on industrial structure adjustment has important theoretical and practical significance for economic development planning and industrial structure upgrading.This study takes Yunnan Province as the research object,and the research content is divided into six parts:First,clarify the purpose,main content,and research framework of the study.Secondly,based on the purpose and content of the study,relevant concepts and theories are sorted out,data are collected,and domestic and foreign literature is analyzed from both empirical and theoretical perspectives,providing a theoretical and data basis for subsequent research.Thirdly,it analyzes the impact of population aging on the three industries,and then completes the complete derivation of the mechanism of population aging on the upgrading of industrial structure from the two dimensions of demand and supply.Fourth,analyze the current situation of population aging and industrial structure development in Yunnan Province from multiple perspectives,predict the trend of aging development in Yunnan Province in the next 40 years,and measure the degree of correlation between the three industries and population aging in Yunnan Province.Fifth,construct a VAR model to study the specific impact of aging on two measures of industrial structure upgrading.Sixth,draw research conclusions,propose policy recommendations,and research prospects.Research shows that the age structure of the population in Yunnan Province is of the elderly type,with a large aging population base and a development rate that is far higher than the total population growth rate.The aging trend is significant.The tertiary industrial structure of Yunnan Province is stable in the "three,two,and one" pattern,but there is still a significant phenomenon of "high proportion and low output value" compared to developed provinces.Both aging and industrial structure development have significant regional heterogeneity.The empirical results show that,firstly,the aging population in Yunnan Province has a persistent blocking effect on the process of industrial structure rationalization,and the blocking effect will gradually weaken in the long term.Secondly,the impact of population aging in Yunnan Province on promoting the upgrading of industrial structure is gradually strengthened,and has a high degree of contribution.Thirdly,technological progress has a positive role in promoting the rationalization and upgrading of industrial structure,and its effect on the upgrading process is more significant.Finally,based on the research findings,suggestions are proposed:adhere to the quality oriented improvement of the social elderly care service system,improve and stimulate the consumption level of the elderly:Adhere to improving the development system of the aging industry,clarify policies and strict supervision:Increase investment in technological progress and enhance the ability of independent innovation and innovation : Attach importance to and increase the introduction and cultivation of service-oriented talents: We will introduce flexible retirement policies in a timely manner,give full play to the residual heat of the elderly,and actively guide and encourage fertility. |
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