Research On The Coordination Of Industrial Structure And Employment Structure In Hunan Province Under The Background Of Aging

At present,Hunan Province has entered the crucial period of economic structure optimization and transformation,showing new achievements in promoting the high-quality development of the "14th five year plan".The coordinated development of industrial structure and employment structure is the key measure of the economic system construction of Hunan Province.As early as the 21st century,Hunan Province has initially entered the aging society.With the deepening of population aging,the demographic dividend gradually subsides.As an irreversible objective development trend,it has become a major challenge for the high-quality economic development of Hunan Province.The aging of population is not only an opportunity but also a challenge to the adjustment of economic structure in Hunan Province.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study how to actively adapt to the objective law of population aging development for the coordinated development of industrial structure and employment structure in Hunan Province.The interaction between population structure and economic structure is complex.For the research on the coordinated development of industrial structure and employment structure in Hunan Province under the background of population aging,based on the theory of industrial economics and population economics,this paper first theoretically analyzes the relationship between population aging and economic structure,and then analyzes the evolution rules and characteristics of population aging,industrial structure and employment structure in Hunan Province from the perspective of time and space.In the empirical analysis,by constructing the coordinated development coefficient of industrial structure and employment structure in Hunan Province,the basic model of the coordinated development of population aging and industrial structure employment structure is established,and the empirical analysis is carried out from the intermediary effect,threshold effect and spatial spillover effect.Finally,the conclusion of the study is drawn,and appropriate countermeasures and suggestions are put forward accordingly.The results show that:First,the spatial distribution of population aging in Hunan Province extends from north to south,the regional spatial difference is significant,and the spatial agglomeration trend of population aging is gradually narrowing.Second,since the reform and opening up,the evolution of industrial structure and employment structure in Hunan Province basically follows the general law of modern economic development.By using structural deviation,coordination coefficient and lag time,it is found that there is a certain lag in the evolution of industrial structure and employment structure in Hunan Province.Third,the aging of population will hinder the coordinated development of industrial structure and employment structure by increasing consumption demand,accelerating the accumulation of human capital,reducing labor productivity,increasing the burden of the elderly and crowding out education expenditure.When the population urbanization,green urbanization and innovative urbanization are taken as threshold variables,it is found that the population aging has a significant single threshold effect on the coordinated development of industrial structure and employment structure.With the improvement of the level of new urbanization,the inhibitory effect of population aging on the coordinated development of industrial structure and employment structure will gradually decrease.According to the estimation of spatial spillover effect population aging only affects the coordinated development of local industrial structure and employment structure,but has no significant spatial spillover effect on neighboring areas.