Research On Prediction And Guidance Of Internet Public Opinion Based On Life Cycle Theory

With the rise of emerging media,new media forms such as Weibo,WeChat,and forums have continued to develop.The public has transformed from traditional information receivers to information communicators and creators,making the network information extremely rich and reversing previous public opinion.The structure of the right to speak,new media platforms,government websites and celebrity microblogs and other information sources form a new form of online public opinion.Bringing new challenges to government monitoring and guiding public opinion,improper response to online public opinion will bring a lot of instability.Therefore,it is an extremely important task to properly respond to sudden online public opinion and improve the ability of government online public opinion monitoring and guidance.This article is based on the life cycle theory and based on previous studies,summarizes the characteristics of Internet public opinion,which are mainly characterized by openness and freedom,diversity and richness,interaction and emergencies,concealment,and uncontrollability.According to the actual situation,the life cycle of Internet public opinion is divided into stages,which are the brewing period,the outbreak period,the spread period,and the recession period.The case of "Benz female car owner crying and defending rights" was selected as a typical case.The development trend of each stage of Internet public opinion,media reports,netizens’ opinions,and inadequate public opinion responses to the incident were combined to construct a network public opinion prediction model based on actual data.The problems in the process of governance and guidance of Internet public opinion are as follows: the moral quality of Internet users is uneven,the subject is blurred in the process of Internet public opinion guidance,the monitoring and early warning mechanism of Internet public opinion is inadequate,and the government ’s credibility is insufficient.Governance and guidance strategies for network public opinion,through strengthening network technology control,improving the moral quality of netizens,strengthening the government’s leading role in governing public opinion,establishing a multi-dimensional coordination mechanism,improving the network public opinion monitoring and early warning mechanism,enhancing government credibility,and improving the construction of the network’s legal system Comprehensively improve the ability of our government to manage and guide sudden public opinion in the new media era.