The Impact Of Personal Income Tax Burden On Residents’ Fertility Willingness On Having Two Children

The aging population and low fertility rate have become a major risk in China’s current social and economic development.After the implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy,China’s total fertility rate rose to 1.69 in 2018,but it is far less than the international average of 2.45.Moreover,after 2018,China’s birth population began to decline,indicating the end of the short-term effect of the comprehensive two-child policy,It is necessary to further explore the social and economic system behind China’s long-term low fertility level.Therefore,this paper starts from the fertility intention of residents,studies the factors that affect the fertility intention of residents,in order to predict the future population change and development,promote the effective implementation of policies and maintain the stable development of social economy.At the same time,tax reduction and fee reduction is a hot issue of people’s livelihood.A series of tax policy reforms to reduce personal income tax burden have attracted the attention of Chinese residents.Based on the theory of personal income tax and childbearing,this paper builds a bridge between personal income tax and the second child’s childbearing intention with income as the intermediate relationship,and theoretically expounds the impact of personal income tax on the second child’s childbearing intention of residents,and then uses the 2018 Chinese family tracking survey data,through the nonlinear probit model,Quantitative analysis of the impact of personal income tax burden on Residents’ willingness to have a second child.Through qualitative and quantitative analysis,the following conclusions are drawn: first,on the whole,the increase of personal income tax has an inhibitory effect on the fertility intention of the second child;Second,after dividing the sample into different regions,it is found that the personal income tax burden has an inhibitory effect on the second child bearing willingness of residents in the eastern and central regions,and the effect on the eastern region is greater than that in the central region;Third,after dividing the sample according to income,the personal income tax burden has different effects on the second child bearing willingness of residents with different income levels.The increase of personal income tax burden will reduce the second child bearing willingness of lower income,middle income and higher income groups,but it does not have a fundamental impact on the low-income and high-income residents.Fourth,on the basis of the order theory in the choice of fertility intention,we only select the residents who have children to test the robustness,and the test results are robust.Finally,according to the conclusions,this paper puts forward the personal income tax policy suggestions to link up with the two child policy.