The Impact Of Aging On High-quality Economic Development From The Perspective Of Population Migration

Aging is currently an important feature of changes in the global population structure,and it has had a profound impact on the socio-economic development of countries and regions in the world.As a developing country that is about to enter an aging society,China’s population aging poses huge challenges to high-quality economic development.Based on panel data from the year 2000 to 2018,Cobb-Douglas production function and the Solow economic growth model are used to study the impact of aging on high-quality economic development.The results show that:(i)On the whole,the current level of high-quality economic development in my country is generally low..The average value of the high-quality economic development index from the year 2000 to 2018 is 0.144.According to the level of high-quality economic development,30 provinces and cities are divided into star,intermediate and backward types.The star-shaped provinces and cities are all located in the eastern region,and the central and western regions are both intermediate and backward provinces.(ii)When considering the factors of population migration,aging still has a restraining effect on high-quality economic development,but the restraining effect is weakening.Among them,the degree of negative impact of aging on the high-quality economic development,from strong to weak,is: Deeply aging(net population outflow)areas > Deeply aging(net population inflow)areas ≈ Shallowly aging(net population outflow)areas >Shallowly aging(net population inflow)areas.(iii)When the factor of population migration is not considered,aging has had a negative impact on the high-quality development of China’s economy during the study period.Among them,the negative impact of deeply aging areas is twice that of lightly aging areas.(iiii)The regression analysis by periods shows that in the context of population migration,the effects of aging on the high-quality economic development of our country have different results in different periods.The negative impact of aging on the high-quality economic development is relatively small from the year 2000 to 2005;the former has a positive effect on the latter from the year 2006 to 2012;the former has a significant negative impact on the latter from the year 2013 to 2018.Based on the empirical results,the following policy opinions are proposed.The first is to improve the government’s assessment mechanism,improve the comprehensive evaluation structure,and scientifically and rationally explore a path that meets the high-quality development of the local economy.The second is to actively respond to the national population policy and increase the development of domestic human capital,especially the development of educational human capital.The third is to increase the introduction of talents and encourage young laborers to return to their hometowns to start businesses.At the same time,the government should provide corresponding technical,financial and policy support to attract investment and create conditions for the introduction of talents.The fourth is to follow the trend of population migration,take precautions,take multiple measures,and actively respond to the aging of the population.