Research On The Influence Of Population Aging On The Quality Of Economic Development In China

In the past 40 years of economic development,China’s rapid economic growth largely depends on the advantage of "demographic dividend".However,with the effective implementation of the family planning policy and the continuous improvement of the level of medical and health infrastructure,both the birth rate and the death rate in China have dropped significantly.At the same time with the overall improvement of social living standards,the life expectancy of the population is also gradually prolonged.Based on this,China’s population age structure has changed significantly,in which the proportion of the elderly population aged 65 and above is gradually increasing,and the trend of aging is obvious.After China officially entered the aging society in 2000,the aging shows an accelerated development state.In recent years,China’s economy is required to promote high-quality development.However,the shortage of labor supply,the increase of public financial pressure and the prominent contradiction between supply and demand of pension resources caused by population aging have become the key problems that cannot be avoided in the new stage of China’s economic development.In this context,it is particularly important to study the impact of population aging on the quality of economic development.Firstly,this paper expounds the theory of population transition and economic development in detail,in order to lay a theoretical foundation for better digging the internal relationship between population aging and the quality of economic development.At the same time,from the labor supply,human capital accumulation and technological innovation,this paper analyzes in detail the mechanism of the aging of China’s population on the quality of economic development.Second,based on the relevant provincial data from 2010 to 2019,this paper describes the current situation of population aging and the quality of economic development in China.By referring to the "five development concepts" to build a comprehensive evaluation index system of the quality of economic development.,and with the principal component analysis method to measure the quality level of economic development in various regions of China.Finally,using individual effect model and mediating effect model,this paper examines the effect of population aging on the quality of economic development in China and the specific mediating effect produced by various mediating variables.Based on the above research,the basic conclusions are as follows:（1）The population aging in China is characterized by rapid development,large regional differences,and being ahead of modernization.The overall performance of the quality level of economic development during the study period is as follows:it has maintained a relatively stable development state before 2017,and then showed a trend of rapid development;In terms of sub-regions,the quality level of economic development in eastern,middle and western regions of China shows a declining,relatively stable and increasing trend respectively.Moreover,it is found that there are obvious regional differences in the quality level of economic development in China,which is manifested in the development law of decreasing from east to west.（2）Through the empirical test of the relationship between population aging and the quality of economic development,it is found that population aging plays a significant positive role in improving the quality of economic development in China,but the effect is different in different regions.Specifically,the aging population has the greatest positive impact on the quality of economic development in the western region,followed by the eastern region,while the effect on the quality of economic development in the central region is not significant.（3）From the test results of the mechanism of action,population aging can have a positive impact on the quality of economic development by increasing human capital accumulation and accelerating technological innovation,and at the same time,it can inhibit the improvement of the quality of economic development by reducing the labor supply.Finally,in order to improve the quality of China’s economic development,this paper mainly puts forward countermeasures and suggestions from the elderly population resources,human capital investment,technological innovation and the elderly industry.