Study On The Impact Of Population Aging On High-quality Economic Development

Since entering the aging society in 2000,the degree of population aging in China has been deepening.With the gradual disappearance of the demographic dividend,the traditional economic growth model relying on the advantage of labor force is difficult to sustain.Aging has had a far-reaching impact on China’s economic and social development.Since 2010,China’s economic growth has continued to slow down,the economy has entered a new normal from high-speed growth to medium and high-speed growth,and the driving force of economic growth has weakened.Facing the new normal of economic development,the Fifth Plenary Session of the 18 th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China put forward a new development concept,which focused on promoting the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure,constantly adjusting the economic development model and changing the growth momentum,promoting the transformation of China’s economy from quantitative growth to quality growth,and promoting high-quality economic development.Therefore,an in-depth study of the impact of population aging on high-quality economic development and its impact path is of great significance for China to solve the problem of population aging and achieve the goal of high-quality economic development.Firstly,this paper combs the direct mechanism of population aging on high-quality economic development from the perspectives of labor supply,human capital,scientific and technological innovation,savings and consumption.At the same time,it brings the upgrading of industrial structure into the theoretical analysis framework to explore the internal mechanism of population aging on high-quality economic development through the upgrading of industrial structure.Secondly,the evaluation index system of high-quality economic development was established.Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2000 to 2019(Tibet was excluded due to the serious lack of data),the comprehensive index of high-quality economic development of each province was calculated.Then,we construct static and dynamic panel models to empirically analyze the impact of population aging on high-quality economic development,and use the intermediary effect model to empirically test the intermediary role of industrial structure upgrading between population aging and high-quality economic development.Finally,the robustness of the empirical results is tested.The empirical analysis draws the following conclusions: the total effect of population aging on high-quality economic development is negative,and aging significantly hinders high-quality economic development.Population aging has a negative effect on the upgrading of industrial structure.Aging has a negative impact on the overall upgrading of industrial structure,the upgrading of industrial structure and the rationalization of industrial structure.The upgrading of industrial structure plays a part of intermediary effect in the process of population aging hindering highquality economic development.The overall upgrading,upgrading and rationalization of industrial structure have played a significant part of intermediary effect.Population aging can not only directly hinder high-quality economic development,but also indirectly affect high-quality economic development through the upgrading of industrial structure.According to the research results,this paper puts forward some policy suggestions,such as actively developing the elderly industry,promoting the innovation driven development strategy,implementing the flexible retirement system,and establishing and improving the fertility support service system.