Research On The Impact Of Aging Rural Population On The High Quality Development Of Agriculture In China

The report of the 20 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China clearly pointed out that achieving high-quality development is one of the essential requirements for achieving Chinese path to modernization,and as the foundation of the national economy,the realization of high-quality development of agriculture will be an indispensable part of achieving Chinese path to modernization.However,with the increasing aging of China’s population,especially in rural areas,the issue of "aging farmers and hollowing out rural areas" has become a new era of "three rural issues".The implementation of the national strategy to actively respond to population aging has also been included in the report of the 20 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China.Therefore,by exploring the mechanism of the aging population in rural areas on the high-quality development of agriculture in China,what is the current relationship between the aging population in rural areas and the high-quality development of agriculture in China? How does the aging population in rural areas affect the high-quality development of agriculture in China? By answering the above questions one by one,it is of great practical significance to effectively respond to the aging population in rural areas and utilize them to promote high-quality agricultural development in China.In view of this,based on the Panel data of 30 provinces and cities in China’s mainland from 2004 to 2020,this paper explores the regional differences of high-quality agricultural development in China by using the entropy method,Dagum Gini coefficient and its decomposition method,Afterwards,the theoretical mechanism of rural population aging as a tool for high-quality agricultural development in China will be sorted out from two perspectives: the linear impact of rural population aging on high-quality agricultural development in China and the threshold effect.Finally,an empirical test was conducted on the effectiveness and mechanism of rural population aging promoting high-quality agricultural development in China by constructing a dynamic panel and threshold effect model.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)From 2004 to 2020,30 provinces and cities in Chinese Mainland have made great progress in high-quality agricultural development.However,there are significant differences between regions.During the observation period,the overall Gini coefficient of high-quality agricultural development in China has changed in the form of first rising,then falling,then rising,and then falling.From a regional perspective,the internal differences between the eastern and central regions are smaller than the national level,while some years in the northeast and western regions have values higher than the national level.There are significant regional differences in the high-quality development level of agriculture in the northeast and western regions.The contribution of hypervariable density is the main source of differences,ranging from 35.605% to 51.775%.(2)Through empirical analysis of the dynamic panel model,it can be concluded that the aging of rural population can significantly promote the improvement of China’s high-quality agricultural development level.This conclusion is still valid after using multiple robustness tests.Its promoting effect is stronger in the main grain production areas than in the balance between production and sales areas,while this promoting effect is not significant in the main sales areas.The aging of rural population can promote the improvement of China’s agricultural development level,resource conditions,economic conditions,and technological conditions by improving the high-quality development of agriculture in China.By inhibiting the improvement of environmental conditions,it can hinder the improvement of China’s agricultural development level.(3)Through empirical analysis of the threshold effect model,it can be concluded that the promoting effect of rural population aging on the high-quality development of agriculture in China will increase with the improvement of the level of high-quality agricultural development.By substituting various subsystems of high-quality agricultural development as threshold variables into the model,it can be found that the promoting effect of rural population aging on high-quality agricultural development in China is influenced by the threshold effects of each subsystem,and the trend of the impact is highly consistent with the trend of the impact of high-quality agricultural development as the threshold variable.It can be inferred that the threshold effect of rural population aging on the high-quality development of agriculture in China may be the result of the "superposition" of various subsystem threshold effects.Based on the above conclusions,in order to better utilize the aging population in rural areas to promote high-quality agricultural development in China,this article proposes the following policy recommendations: firstly,on the basis of continuing to promote high-quality agricultural development in China,focus on regional coordinated development of high-quality agricultural development.Secondly,it is necessary to fully utilize the advantages of rural population aging in improving resource conditions and the incentive mechanism for technological progress,encourage the development of specialized and information-based scale agriculture and efficient agriculture,promote moderate land management in rural areas,and actively guide the investment and use of new agricultural technologies and factors.Thirdly,deeply understand the era connotation of high-quality development,actively promote high-quality agricultural development to a new level,and strive to create a more favorable policy environment and a more solid material foundation for achieving high-quality agricultural development.Fourthly,on the basis of ensuring the steady progress of high-quality agricultural development in the main grain producing areas,we will focus on the balance between production and sales areas and the improvement of high-quality agricultural development in the main sales areas.