Prediction And Analysis Of Long-term Care Needs Of Elderly In China

Population aging is a problem faced by most countries in the world.As one of the most populous countries in the world,China is facing an increasingly severe population aging situation due to the increase in life expectancy,the decline in fertility and birth rates,and the decline in mortality in the past few decades.As a developing country in transition,China faces severe challenges in providing long-term care services to the elderly.Chinese current social security and welfare system is unable to meet the long-term care needs of most elderly people,which urges people to understand China.The pattern of health transitions for the elderly and the length of long-term care needs to assist in the implementation of social security programs and the development of related financial products for long-term care.This article uses a micro-prediction analysis method,using personal layer panel data from the 1998-2012 China Longitudinal Health and Longevity Survey,and using a generalized linear model as a framework to combine age effects,time trends,and age-time interaction effects in three health states(Health state,functional disability state,and death state)in the non-homogeneous Markov process,calculate the health state transition probability matrix of the elderly,avoid the subjectivity of selecting explanatory variables in the regression model,solve the problem that the homogeneous Markov process assumption is not consistent with the actual situation,and based on this prediction,get the elderly long-term care needs Length of time.The results show that under the same conditions,the female elderly have a higher survival advantage than the male elderly,and the male elderly have a health advantage over the female elderly.The length of long-term care needs a non-linear relationship with age and is functional.The duration of the state of disability increases with age and then decreases;all health state transition models include age effects,and the disability rate model and disability mortality model also include time trends and age-time interaction effects;initial health Elderly females in poor condition will be the main group of long-term care services in the future.