Research On The Changing Trend Of Population Life Expectancy In G20 Countries Based On The Double Gap Model And The Life Expectancy Of Eliminating Causes Of Death In China

Objective: Since the 1950 s,countries in the world have made great progress in social and economic development,medical and health services,and the health of the population has generally improved.The mortality rate in most countries continuous decline,and life expectancy steadily increases.However,there are obvious regional differences in life expectancy,of which life expectancy in developed regions is significantly higher than that of undeveloped regions.Therefore,at the macro level,further improvement should be made to solve the current uneven regional development.The implementation of health policies should be based on local life expectancy characteristics.Therefore,it is of great significance to predict the future trend of population life expectancy.The aim of this study is to predict the life expectancy of different countries in the G20(except the European Union)based on the double gap model,and to provide guidance for countries or regions to make social development plans and decisions.This study also analysis the cause eliminated life expectancy of China in 2018,which can guide the intervention of key populations.Methods: The average life expectancy and gender-specific life expectancy of G20countries(except the European Union)from 1960 to 2018 were described,and the trend of life expectancy was explored.According to the gender and regional differences in life expectancy,a double gap model was established to predict and analyze the development trend of life expectancy in G20 countries(except the European Union)by 2030.And,the Chinese disease and death monitoring data in 2018 were used to calculate the cause eliminated life expectancy,and determine the impact of major disease on Chinese residents’ of health.Results: The average life expectancy of G20 countries(except the European Union)significantly increased from 1960 to 2018,but regional and gender differences still exist.In 2030,the life expectancy of men and women in various countries will further increase.The life expectancy of men at birth in China is expected to reach 75.15 years,and that of women is 79.60 years.And,the life expectancy of 60-year-old men is expected to reach19.88 years,and that of women is 22.17 years,which is close to that of developed countries.The top five causes of the largest loss of life expectancy at birth in China are heart disease,cerebrovascular disease,malignant tumors,respiratory diseases,and injuries.If these causes are removed,life expectancy at birth in China may increase by14.09,13.47,12.78,9.13 and 7.26 years old,respectively.The top five causes of life expectancy loss at birth for Chinese male are malignant tumors,cerebrovascular diseases,heart diseases,respiratory diseases,and injuries.If these causes are removed,the life expectancy of Chinese male at birth may increase by 11.96,10.95,10.73,7.42 and 5.98 years,respectively.The top five causes of the largest loss of life expectancy at birth for Chinese female are heart disease,cerebrovascular disease,malignant tumors,respiratory diseases and injuries.If these causes are removed,the life expectancy of Chinese female at birth may increase by 18.89,16.78,13.66,11.35 and 9.00 years,respectively.The top five causes of the largest loss of life expectancy for the elderly in China(65 years old)are heart disease,cerebrovascular disease,malignant tumors,respiratory diseases,and injuries,respectively.If these causes are removed,the life expectancy of the elderly in China will be different It may increase 15.11,14.44,12.57,10.16 and 7.33 years,respectively.The top five causes of the largest loss of life expectancy among Chinese elderly male(65 years old)are cerebrovascular diseases,malignant tumors,heart disease,and respiratory system Illness,and injury,respectively.If these causes are removed,the life expectancy of elderly male in China may increase by 12.00,11.87,11.69,8.62 and5.90 years,respectively.The top five cause of the largest life expectancy loss in China elderly female(65 years)are heart disease,cerebrovascular disease,malignant tumor,respiratory disease,and injury,respectively.If these reasons are removed,the life expectancy of elderly female in China may increase by 19.82,17.57,13.35,12.10 and9.20 years,respectively.Conclusion: From 1960 to 2018,the average life expectancy of each country has gradually increased.Regional differences and gender differences in life expectancy still exist.The life expectancy of most developed countries is higher than that of developing countries,and the life expectancy of female is higher than that of male.According the results of double gap model,,the average life expectancy of each country and the life expectancy of male and female will show an upward trend from 2018 to 2030.The double gap model has a great importance in predicting life expectancy by gender.By analyzing the main diseases and health problems that affect the death rate of Chinese residents in 2018,we found that the top five causes of the largest loss of life expectancy for the elderly(65 years old)are heart disease,cerebrovascular disease,malignant tumors,respiratory diseases and injuries.