Research On Investment Decision Of Existing Building Energy-saving Reconstruction Project Based On Real Option

Excessive greenhouse gases have caused a series problems such as global climate change,so it is urgent to implement sustainable energy strategy.At present,low-carbon transformation strategy of China is mainly energy-saving.Due to the transition to urbanization and formal housing model,building energy consumption will occupy the first place in social energy consumption.Thus the government thinks highly of the energy-saving renovation of existing buildings.But the investment of the project has many options features.Based on the real options method,project investment decisions are studied from market and policy perspective,assuming that the energy price follow the mean regression process and the geometric Brownian motion process with jump,two different option models are constructed,and the impact of uncertain parameters on investment strategy is analyzed.The main content of this paper is as follows:(1)Based on mean regression is analyzed,option of existing building energy-saving renovation project.Firstly,the market theory of mean regression behavior model is analyzed,considering that the uncertainty of natural gas price mainly comes from the fluctuation caused by short-term random walk,assumeing that the natural gas price flollow mean reversion process.The project value and option value models are constructed in combination with the situation of market and the investment threshold is obtained by mathematical deduction.Finally,the impact of uncertain factors on the investment strategy is analyzed by numerical simulation.(2)Based on geometric Brownian motion with jump,option of existing building energy-saving renovation project is analyzed.Firstly,policy theory of the behavior model of the geometric Brownian motion with jump is analyzed,assuming that energy prices follow geometric Brownian motion with jump because of the policy mutation.Then,combined with the actual situation of China’s existing building energy-saving transformation policy,considering the policy uncertainty whether to implement or not and the policy to determine the implementation of two policy environments,respectively established four options evaluation models: the current policy has not been implemented,the current policy has been implemented,the current low-intensity policy has been implemented,the current high-intensity policy has been implemented,and the influence of policy uncertainty and policy incentive strength on investment threshold is analyzed theoretically.Finally,combined with a specific case,the impact of policy uncertainty factors on the investment strategy is analyzed.