Construction Timing For Suburban Railway Based On Real Option

As a mean of urban extension and "lead" of the metropolitan area,suburban railway could promote the process of urbanization and regional economic integration,and is an inevitable choice to meet people's demand for high-quality transportation.As an important premise of suburban railway planning,optimal timing is an important basis for the effectiveness of suburban railway construction and the effective utilization of resources.This paper focuses on the construction timing for suburban railway.Considering the influence of uncertain factors to determine the changes of suburban railway value with time.Finally,through a case study,the research method of this paper is verified and the conclusion is drawn.According to this idea,the specific work of this paper is as follows:First,analyze the characteristics of suburban railway.It is considered that the suburban railway has the characteristics of urbanization,commuting,and flexible operation.The main service scope is between intercity railway and urban rail transit.Therefore,the suburban railway can be used as a powerful means for the local government to adjust urban planning,and improve the local government's macro-control ability and efficiency.Secondly,analyze the component of suburban railway value and the source and influence of the uncertain factors of suburban railway construction timing.The value of the suburban railway project is divided into five parts: operational benefit,social benefit,operational cost,social cost and construction cost.Analyze the uncertain factors come from the combination of external factors and internal factors,which has the greatest impact on operational benefit and construction cost,assuming that its variation with time is similar to geometric Brownian motion in combination with corresponding volatility and drift rate.Then,measure the value of suburban railway considering the uncertain factors based on real option,and determine the optimal construction timing with the goal of maximizing the project value.Establish a dynamic model for the value of suburban railway project,that is,the dynamic model of the construction timing of suburban railway.Finally,in case analysis,Monte Carlo simulation was used to determine the optimal timing of suburban railway construction,the main conclusion is: uncertain factors have the most prominent impact on the construction cost and operational benefit of the suburban railway,especially the construction cost and the operational benefit of the project in the early stage.