Research On Risk Management Of EPC Project Based On Improved G1 Method And Set Pair Analysis

With the globalization of the world economy,the construction of engineering projects is also moving towards large-scale and complicated.The scale,scope and competition of the project delivery market are expanding,and the competition is becoming increasingly fierce.The traditional package model has been unable to keep pace with the development of modern construction.The EPC total package model has been developed and gradually developed.It is applied to all kinds of large-scale projects.Under the EPC general contracting mode,the general contractor’s income increases,and it also bears most of the risks of the general contracting project,making it face greater challenges.Therefore,risk management plays a qualitative role in the success or failure of EPC projects.However,the risk management of EPC projects in China is still in the stage of experience accumulation,lacking scientific and systematic nature.In view of this,on the basis of the characteristics of the EPC project and the existing research results of risk management,this paper takes the risk management process as the main line to explore the EPC project risk management system.In the stage of risk identification,this paper identifies and classifies the risk factors of EPC projects,and sets up a risk evaluation index system for EPC projects from five aspects of technology,economy,management,force majeure and political risk;In the stage of risk assessment,Considering the index scale more consistent with the people’s psychological cognitive habits,the index is empowered by the improved G1 method based on the index scale,Combined with the complexity and uncertainty of the EPC project risk management system,by comparing the evaluation methods,the set pair analysis method is used to evaluate the risk factors of the EPC project,Index weight,construction of the EPC project risk five Yuan contact number evaluation model,through the calculation of the EPC project risk five yuan connection number set to the potential and deviation coefficient,static risk situation,dynamic analysis of risk development trend,and then master the EPC project risk status;Risk coping stages are divided into risk avoidance,risk mitigation,risk transfer,risk retention,and corresponding countermeasures are formulated for risk factors.Taking the risk management of S hydropower EPC project as the object,this paper analyzes the risk factors of the project,constructs the evaluation model of the risk five Yuan contact number,calculates the risk set and the coefficient of deviation,and finally determines the comprehensive risk grade of the project,and is in the same situation 61 level,showing a positive trend of development.Making corresponding risk response measures for risk factors at different risk levels has a reference for EPC project risk management.