Village Relocation Simulation Based On Logistic-CA-Markov Model

The distribution of a large number of villages in the lower reaches of the Yellow River flood,the flood is occupied,a greater potential threat.' The scientific relocation of villages in the downstream area of the Yellow River has important theoretical and practical significance for villagers' safety,economic development and river environmental protection.Based on the land use data of 1995,2000 and 2015,the land use data of 1995,2000 and 2015 are used as the research area.Based on the Logistic-CA-Markov model,the land use status in 2025 is predicted on the basis of using the existing data to verify the 2015 simulation results,and the villages are designed for different scenarios according to the spatial distribution map of the village suitability.Relocation simulation provides a scientific basis for the relocation,selection and decision-making of villages in the study area.The conclusions of the study are as follows:(1)The method of combination of TOL and VIF is used to diagnose and eliminate the three grid scales of 500m,750m and 1km,and then select the influence factors of land use change.Based on the ROC(receiver operating characteristic curve)curve,the grid resolution suitable for the land use simulation in the study area is determined.By comparing and analyzing the area under different raster resolution ROC curves,it is determined that the best grid scale of land use simulation in this study is 1km*1km.Under the natural development mode,cultivated land has been decreasing continuously and construction land has maintained a relatively fast growth trend.(2)Using the existing land use data and the atlas of land use suitability,the land use data in 2015 are simulated on the basis of the CA-Markov model and the Kappa value is verified.Then the land use pattern in the region of the lower reaches of the Yellow River in 2025 is predicted,and the land use characteristics of the 1995-2025 year research area are analyzed.(3)In order to solve the problem of the contradiction between people and land in the lower reaches of the lower reaches of the Yellow River and to meet the requirements of flood control,the simulation of village relocation in the lower reaches of the Yellow River is studied and 3 relocation scenarios are set up.Under the situation of flood control security,the villages with the largest 5 villages and towns inundated in the lower reaches of the lower reaches of the Yellow River are selected as the relocation objects,and the villages and towns are relocated,Cross Township resettlement,near resettlement,centralized resettlement,and reclaim area reclaimed cultivated land and woodland;under the development priority situation,the village of 5 villages and towns with the lowest 5 per capita is selected as the relocation object,the village is mainly concentrated into the county town,the town,the trunk road,the tourist attractions and the park.As the object of relocation,the villages with the lowest ground area of the 5 villages and towns are mainly used in the same Township resettlement,cross Township resettlement,near resettlement,the minimum occupancy of arable land in the resettlement process and the reclaimed land reclaimed in the relocated area.