| The automobile industry in China has been participating in global value chain activities for over 30 years.It has undergone three stages from the initial stage,largescale expansion to overseas mergers and acquisitions.It has formed a relatively complete manufacturing system.In 2018,China’s automobile production and sales volume reached 27.809 million units and 28.081 million units respectively,ranking first in the world for 10 consecutive years.And it exported 10.41 million vehicles,showing a rapid growth trend.However,under the rapid expansion of production scale,the absence of some value-added links in the global value chain of the Chinese automotive industry has led to a failure of forming a closed-loop recirculation chain.The obvious fragmentation is emerging mainly in the scale and structure of production and sales and its profitibility.Among them,the value chain has split into upstream design,on-stream key component manufacturing,and vehicle manufacturing scale.Moreover high-value ends at downstream are captured by foreign operatores.Besides,there is a segmentation between the large-scale domestic sales of vehicles and a small amount of exports.The value chain of automotive industry in China did not extend effectively overseas.At the same time,in the context of the global value chain,China’s export growth fluctuation of auto products is affected by many factors.Based on the global value chain theory,export fluctuation theory,and global value chain theory of the automotive industry,this thesis uses the UN comtrade database to classify automotive products by vehicle and auto parts and descripts the status of export fluctuations.In addition,by using the WIOD database,this thesis classifies intermediate inputs into intermediate product inputs,intermediate service inputs,local intermediate inputs,and foreign intermediate inputs by input type and input country.This study analyzes the status of intermediate input in the Chinese automotive industry from 2000 to 2014.Besides,it uses the value-added accounting methods to measure the participation and status of the global value chain of the automotive industry in China.It further analyzes the fluctuation factors of China’s auto product exports by constructing Vector Auto-regression(VAR)model.The empirical analysis of this study draws the following conclusions:(1)Changes in international market demand and in the participation of the global value chain of the automotive industry are the main factors affecting the fluctuation of China’s auto product exports.Among them,the changes in the participation of the global value chain of the automotive industry affect the export of auto products volatility has a negative impact,while international market demand has a positive impact.(2)The fluctuation of China’s auto product exports is subject to the pulse of changes in international market demand,with the highest degree of response.In addition,it has the least degree of response to changes in technological level,which is related to the fact that China’s auto product exports are mainly self-owned brand cars.Based on the above,this thesis integrates analysis on the status of the global value chain of the automotive industry in China with the factors that affect the going global of automotive products,proposes relevant policy recommendations such as improving the market efficiency of the automotive industry,creating an information technology exchange and sharing platform,and maintaining the stability of export tax rebate policies. |
