Low Carbon Transformation Of Power Structure Under The Goal Of "Double Carbon"

"Carbon Neutrality" has become a "trend" in the world,and China officially put forward the "Double Carbon" goal in 2020.At present,among all industries in China,the carbon emission of the power industry ranks first.Therefore,the low-carbon transformation and development of the power industry is very important.The feasible low-carbon transformation path of the power industry is to reduce the proportion of coalfired power and transform thermal power with CCS technology,and to increase the installed capacity of renewable energy power.The new power system with renewable energy as the main role is gradually established.However,renewable energy is often affected by meteorological uncertainty,and it still has higher cost compared with traditional power technology.Solving the instability of renewable energy power generation and exploring the change trend of power generation cost are two important issues studied in this paper.Combined with the characteristics of each power technology,this paper constructs the corresponding multi factor levelized power generation cost model,improves the accuracy of power technology and economic evaluation in different stages,and lays a cost foundation for power planning research;The comprehensive resource strategic planning model is improved,the proportion of flexible resources is included in the constraints,and the impact of pure electric vehicles and energy storage technology on the power planning scheme is considered in the model,so as to achieve the collaborative optimization of resource allocation on both sides of power supply and demand.The research contents and main conclusions of this paper are as follows:（1）Starting from the two paths of thermal power technological transformation and increasing the proportion of renewable energy,this paper identifies the key emission reduction technologies,combs and introduces the development status of China’s power industry in detail based on biomass power generation,solar thermal power generation,offshore wind power,CCS technology and energy storage technology,and defines the carbon emission reduction quota of the power industry in the planning period.（2）Considering various internal and external cost factors,the Levelized Cost of Electricity（LCOE）model adapted to the characteristics of each power technology is established.Evaluate the cost evolution trend of supply side power technology in the planning period from the perspective of technical economy.During the planning period,the LCOE values of conventional hydropower and nuclear power are relatively stable.The LCOE value of pumped storage and biomass power generation will decrease.Affected by technological learning and economies of scale,the LCOE values of onshore wind power,offshore wind power,photovoltaic power generation and solar thermal power generation will decline to a large extent,among which the cost of offshore wind power and solar thermal power generation will decline the most,and it is estimated that by 2060 their LCOE values will reach 0.35 and 0.34 yuan / k Wh respectively;The LCOE values of coal and gas power is rising,and the LCOE value of coal power may reach 2yuan/k Wh by 2060.（3）The baseline and acceleration scenarios are set,and the IRSP model is used to solve the planning indicators such as power development scale,power generation and power carbon emission in each stage of the planning to meet the future power demand.The power generation of the baseline scenario in 2030 and 2060 is 12.2 and 20.3 trillion k Wh respectively,and the power generation of the acceleration scenario in 2030 and 2060 is 12.1 and 22.2 trillion k Wh respectively;The coal power grounding scale in the baseline and acceleration scenarios reached 487 million KW and 684 million KW respectively;The total installed capacity of wind and solar power and the proportion of renewable energy installed capacity in the acceleration scenario is greater than that in the baseline scenario at each stage;The carbon emissions of the baseline and acceleration scenarios will reach the peak of 4.78 and 4.765 billion tons in 2030 and 2025 respectively,and the negative emissions will be-226 and-100 million tons in 2060 and 2050 respectively.（4）According to the final power planning scheme and comparative analysis of the results,the corresponding policy suggestions are given from five aspects: coal power development,demand side management,new energy storage,CCS technology and power system flexibility regulation ability,so as to provide suggestions for China’s future lowcarbon transformation and development of power structure.